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APPLIED BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES
Climatic suitability for malaria transmission in Africa, 1911–1995

Jennifer Small ^* , Scott J. Goetz ^* , and Simon I. Hay  ^¶

^*Department of Geography, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742-8225; Woods Hole Research Center, P.O. Box 296, Woods Hole, MA 02543-0296; Trypanosomiasis and Land-Use in Africa Research Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS, United Kingdom; and ^¶Kenya Medical Research Institute/Wellcome Trust Collaborative Programme, P.O. Box 43640, 00100 Nairobi GPO, Kenya

Communicated by George M. Woodwell, Woods Hole Research Center, Woods Hole, MA, October 27, 2003 (received for review May 6, 2003)

Time series analysis of a climate-driven model of malaria transmission shows limited evidence for an increase in suitability during the last century across Africa. Outside areas where climate was always or never suitable, <17% of the continent showed significant trends in malaria transmission. Of these areas, 5.7% showed positive deterministic trends, 6.1% had negative deterministic trends, and 5.1% exhibited stochastic trends. In areas with positive trends, precipitation, rather than temperature, was the primary forcing variable. This analysis highlights the need to examine the relationship between climate and malaria more closely and to fully consider nonclimatic factors as drivers of increased malaria transmission across the continent.

To whom correspondence should be addressed at: Department of Geography, University of Maryland, 2181 Lefrak Hall, College Park, MD 20742-8225. E-mail: jsmall{at}geog.umd.edu.

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