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Published online on September 25, 2006, 10.1073/pnas.0606291103
PNAS | September 26, 2006 | vol. 103 | no. 39 | 14288-14293
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PHYSICAL SCIENCES / ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Global temperature change

James Hansen*,{dagger},{ddagger}, Makiko Sato*,{dagger}, Reto Ruedy*,§, Ken Lo*,§, David W. Lea, and Martin Medina-Elizade

*National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies, {dagger}Columbia University Earth Institute, and §Sigma Space Partners, Inc., 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025; and Department of Earth Science, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106

Contributed by James Hansen, July 31, 2006

Global surface temperature has increased {approx}0.2°C per decade in the past 30 years, similar to the warming rate predicted in the 1980s in initial global climate model simulations with transient greenhouse gas changes. Warming is larger in the Western Equatorial Pacific than in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific over the past century, and we suggest that the increased West–East temperature gradient may have increased the likelihood of strong El Niños, such as those of 1983 and 1998. Comparison of measured sea surface temperatures in the Western Pacific with paleoclimate data suggests that this critical ocean region, and probably the planet as a whole, is approximately as warm now as at the Holocene maximum and within {approx}1°C of the maximum temperature of the past million years. We conclude that global warming of more than {approx}1°C, relative to 2000, will constitute "dangerous" climate change as judged from likely effects on sea level and extermination of species.

climate change | El Niños | global warming | sea level | species extinctions

Freely available online through the PNAS open access option.

Author contributions: D.W.L. and M.M.-E. contributed data; J.H., M.S., R.R., K.L., D.W.L., and M.M.-E. analyzed data; and J.H. wrote the paper.

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

{ddagger}To whom correspondence should be addressed: E-mail: jhansen{at}giss.nasa.gov

© 2006 by The National Academy of Sciences of the USA


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