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Climate Change and Food Security Special Feature
CLIMATE CHANGE AND FOOD SECURITY SPECIAL FEATURE / BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES / RESEARCH ARTICLES / SUSTAINABILITY SCIENCE
Global fish production and climate change
International Council for the Exploration of the Sea, 44–46 Hans Christian Andersens Boulevard, DK-1553 Copenhagen V, Denmark
Edited by William Easterling, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, and accepted by the Editorial Board September 26, 2007 (received for review March 6, 2007)
Current global fisheries production of 
160 million tons is rising as a result of increases in aquaculture production. A number of climate-related threats to both capture fisheries and aquaculture are identified, but we have low confidence in predictions of future fisheries production because of uncertainty over future global aquatic net primary production and the transfer of this production through the food chain to human consumption. Recent changes in the distribution and productivity of a number of fish species can be ascribed with high confidence to regional climate variability, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Future production may increase in some high-latitude regions because of warming and decreased ice cover, but the dynamics in low-latitude regions are governed by different processes, and production may decline as a result of reduced vertical mixing of the water column and, hence, reduced recycling of nutrients. There are strong interactions between the effects of fishing and the effects of climate because fishing reduces the age, size, and geographic diversity of populations and the biodiversity of marine ecosystems, making both more sensitive to additional stresses such as climate change. Inland fisheries are additionally threatened by changes in precipitation and water management. The frequency and intensity of extreme climate events is likely to have a major impact on future fisheries production in both inland and marine systems. Reducing fishing mortality in the majority of fisheries, which are currently fully exploited or overexploited, is the principal feasible means of reducing the impacts of climate change.
fisheries | net primary production
The author declares no conflict of interest.
This article is a PNAS Direct Submission. W.E. is a guest editor invited by the Editorial Board.
© 2007 by The National Academy of Sciences of the USA
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  W. E. Easterling From the Cover: Climate Change and Food Security Special Feature: Climate change and the adequacy of food and timber in the 21st century PNAS, December 11, 2007; 104(50): 19679 - 19679. [Full Text] [PDF]
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