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Vol. 95, Issue 22, 12753-12758, October 27, 1998

Perspective
 Climate forcings in the Industrial era

James E. Hansen*, Makiko Sato, Andrew Lacis, Reto Ruedy, Ina Tegen, and Elaine Matthews

National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY 10025

Contributed by James E. Hansen, August 18, 1998

The forcings that drive long-term climate change are not known with an accuracy sufficient to define future climate change. Anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), which are well measured, cause a strong positive (warming) forcing. But other, poorly measured, anthropogenic forcings, especially changes of atmospheric aerosols, clouds, and land-use patterns, cause a negative forcing that tends to offset greenhouse warming. One consequence of this partial balance is that the natural forcing due to solar irradiance changes may play a larger role in long-term climate change than inferred from comparison with GHGs alone. Current trends in GHG climate forcings are smaller than in popular "business as usual" or 1% per year CO2 growth scenarios. The summary implication is a paradigm change for long-term climate projections: uncertainties in climate forcings have supplanted global climate sensitivity as the predominant issue.

*   To whom reprint requests should be addressed. e-mail: jhansen{at}giss.nasa.gov.

Copyright © 1998 by The National Academy of Sciences  0027-8424/98/9512753-6$2.00/0
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