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Published online on August 15, 2000, 10.1073/pnas.170278997
PNAS | August 29, 2000 | vol. 97 | no. 18 | 9875-9880


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Geophysics
 Global warming in the twenty-first century: An alternative scenario

(climate change / greenhouse gases / aerosols / air pollution)

James Hansen*,dagger , Makiko Sato*,Dagger , Reto Ruedy*, Andrew Lacis*, and Valdar Oinas*,§

* National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Dagger  Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University Earth Institute, and § Center for Environmental Prediction, Rutgers University, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025

Contributed by James Hansen, June 16, 2000

A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven mainly by non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as chlorofluorocarbons, CH4, and N2O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning, CO2 and aerosols, the positive and negative climate forcings of which are partially offsetting. The growth rate of non-CO2 GHGs has declined in the past decade. If sources of CH4 and O3 precursors were reduced in the future, the change in climate forcing by non-CO2 GHGs in the next 50 years could be near zero. Combined with a reduction of black carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO2 emissions, this reduction of non-CO2 GHGs could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change. Such a focus on air pollution has practical benefits that unite the interests of developed and developing countries. However, assessment of ongoing and future climate change requires composition-specific long-term global monitoring of aerosol properties.

dagger To whom reprint requests should be addressed. E-mail: jhansen{at}giss.nasa.gov.


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