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PROFILE
Profile of Stephen R. Carpenter
Whether you are a fisherman, a kayaker, or just a lover of the outdoors, the sight—and smell—of a scummy, algae-covered lake may not be particularly appealing. For Stephen R. Carpenter, who is all of the above as well as a renowned lake ecologist, the problems associated with this algae buildup, or eutrophication, go far deeper than simple aesthetics. "Eutrophication is a significant environmental problem that can impact humans on a recreational, economic, and even public health level," says Carpenter, "and it's likely to intensify in the coming decades due to increases in human population, demand for more food, land conversion, and fertilizer use."
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Recently, Carpenter has become interested in the capabilities and limits of ecosystem forecasting. In his Inaugural Article published in this issue of PNAS (1), he forecasts the long-term impact of the primary human contributor to lake eutrophication: nonpoint phosphorus pollution. Using Wisconsin's Lake Mendota as a model, Carpenter projects the phosphorus concentrations in the water, sediment, and surrounding soils over the course of a millennium. The scenarios predict a need for dramatic
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