Human-modified temperatures induce species changes: Joint attribution

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   Fig. 1.

   For each year, the occurrence dates (Julian) of spring phenological traits are averaged over all Northern Hemisphere species exhibiting statistically significant changes in those traits (n = 130). These averages are plotted against the following. (A) Year with a –3.2 day change per decade. (B) The average modeled spring (March, April, and May) temperatures including only natural forcings at each study location (r = 0.22, P < 0.23). (C) Identical to B but including only anthropogenic forcings (r = –0.71, P < 0.001). (D) Identical to B but including both natural and anthropogenic forcings (r = –0.72, P ≤ 0.001).

   
   
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   Fig. 2.

   Frequency of correlation coefficients calculated between species' phenological traits and modeled spring (March, April, and May) temperatures for all species showing phenological changes (n = 145) assuming NF (A), AF (B), or CF (C). The striping indicates that all of the indicated correlation values are statistically significant (P < 0.1).