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In at least one respect, the social, economic, political, and
behavioral sciences truly are the "hard" sciences. A problem that
is unique to these areas of research is that the subjects of the study
(human beings) can read. Because of this, developing a
theory to understand and predict an election outcome or a stock market
crash is fundamentally more difficult than the problem of predicting a
chemical reaction or an earthquake.
In the case of the chemical reaction or the earthquake, the
publication of the theory will not have any effect on the prediction. In the case of the election outcome or the stock market crash, if the
prediction is public, and the theory is convincing, individuals may
have incentives to take advantage of their knowledge of the theory to
alter their behavior. Thus, if individuals believe a prediction that a
stock market crash is imminent, they may decide to sell off declining
stocks before the crash, implying that the crash will occur earlier
than predicted. So the original prediction will be wrong. Any good
theory of behavior in the social sciences must work even when the
participants know the theory, that is, the theory must survive
its own publication. This characteristic of a theory is captured
mathematically by concepts of game theoretic equilibrium such as the
Nash equilibrium [the general existence of which was first established
in these pages 49 years ago (1)] for noncooperative games, and the
core for cooperative games. The necessity of a theory to be
publication-proof helps explain why game theoretic models
have become central to the study of social science.
The second Special Feature, on the social sciences, is presented
in this issue as part of the National Academies of Sciences' continuing initiative to promote the physical sciences, social and
behavioral sciences, and mathematics through its house journal, PNAS.
(The first Special Feature, on astronomy, can be found at www.pnas.org.) The six Perspective articles focus on a selection of
currently active areas of research that either highlight some of the
problems unique to the social sciences or illustrate the use of ideas
in the social sciences that may be of particular interest to people
outside the social sciences. As for all Special Features, we are
continuing to encourage submission of original research that may be
presented as part of the free web-based version of the Feature (see
www.pnas.org).
The social sciences Special Feature includes several Perspective
articles that illustrate the importance of game theory in current
social science research. Feddersen and Pesendorfer (2) use the Nash
theory of game theoretic equilibrium to derive nonobvious and testable
predictions about jury behavior, which challenge the conventional
wisdom that the requirement of unanimous verdicts helps protect
innocent defendants. Durlauf (3) considers equilibrium behavior in a
setting where individuals have preferences that are a function of the
similarity of their behavior to others in a reference group (such as a
peer group or social network) and a random error term. This yields a
model that is amenable to the study of social and group interactions.
In this stochastic setting, equilibrium includes the idea of
rational expectations
on average, beliefs about the
behavior of others must be correct. The Wooders paper (4) applies game
theoretic reasoning in a cooperative game setting, providing conditions
under which local public goods (such as police protection, public
schools, or parks) should be provided efficiently. In addition to the
Perspective articles, the regular research article by Banks (ref. 5;
see issue 14, page 8295) uses game theory to explain when legislatures
will adopt restrictive rules (rules that limit the number and type of
amendments that can be offered to a piece of legislation), finding a
relationship between the number of issues and the type of rule.
While game theoretic and rational choice models have pervaded
much theoretical reasoning in the social sciences, experimental work
has consistently shown limits to the applicability of these models.
Goeree and Holt (6) discuss these problems and show how the
introduction of stochastic error into game theoretic models helps bring
theory closer to experimental data. Camerer (7) summarizes some of the
primary experimental limitations of rational choice and game theoretic
models, and presents alternative models proposed by behavioral
economists that account for these limitations.
The Perspective articles have also been selected to highlight
potential areas of overlap between problems in the social sciences and
other areas of science. Several articles illustrate ways in which ideas
from other fields have been useful in the study of social science:
Saari (8) applies ideas from mathematical chaos theory to voting and
apportionment, providing the latest startling reminder in a long series
of results (starting with Arrow's impossibility theorem) showing how
badly behaved social choice can be; Schuessler (9) considers
connections between problems in tomography and the problem of
ecological inference (the problem of making inferences about
individuals from aggregate level data); Durlauf applies ideas from
statistical mechanics to the study of social interactions; and Goeree
and Holt apply ideas from statistical physics to evolution and learning
in games.
While the Perspective articles focus primarily on theoretical or
conceptual issues, the regular research articles appearing in this
issue are all empirical or experimental. Gerber and Green (10) perform
a field experiment to estimate the effects of canvassing on voter
turnout. Fong and McCabe (11) present an experimental study of a
phenomenon called "illusion of control" (the hypothesis that
individuals value gambles more highly if they are involved in the
process generating the gamble), finding, contrary to the accepted view
in the literature, that involvement lowers rather that raises the
valuation of a gamble. The field of mechanism design uses
principles of game theory to design rules that will make systems with
undesirable properties work better. Andreoni and Varian (12) conduct an
experimental test of a mechanism for implementing efficient outcomes in
a repeated prisoner's dilemma, finding some support that the mechanism
does lead to more efficient behavior.
The social, economic, and political sciences encompass a vast
subject matter, and the Special Feature illustrates merely a sample
(although a particularly exciting one) of the studies being carried
out. Future Special Features will cover the cutting edge of research in
all these areas. Through these Features (the next is on rapid climate
change, see www.pnas.org), PNAS aims to provide a forum where research
can be discussed, published, and made visible to a general scientific
audience, fostering interest and interdisciplinary research in all
areas of science, some of which have traditionally been very insular.
| Richard D. McKelvey |
Guy Riddihough |
| Editorial Board PNAS |
Associate Recruiting Editor PNAS |