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* Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research and
Edited by James E. Hansen, Goddard Institute for Space Studies,
New York, NY, and approved December 16, 1999 (received for review October 29, 1999)
The relation between changes in modern glaciers, not including the
ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica, and their climatic environment
is investigated to shed light on paleoglacier evidence of past climate
change and for projecting the effects of future climate warming on cold
regions of the world. Loss of glacier volume has been more or less
continuous since the 19th century, but it is not a simple adjustment to
the end of an "anomalous" Little Ice Age. We address the
1961-1997 period, which provides the most observational data on volume
changes. These data show trends that are highly variable with time as
well as within and between regions; trends in the Arctic are consistent
with global averages but are quantitatively smaller. The averaged
annual volume loss is 147 mm·yr Evidence for rapid climate
changes in the past has been derived from many sources, including
glaciers and ice sheets. Here we investigate the relation between the
relatively well documented changes in modern glaciers and their
climatic environment. The climatic processes affecting glaciers, both
modern and those of the past, are unique to high altitudes and/or
high latitudes, areas with few instrumented climate stations.
Therefore, an examination of this relationship may be instructive for
the study of paleoglacier evidence as indicative of past climate, and
for projecting the effects of future climate warming on cold regions of
the world. The volume of a glacier changes constantly because of
variations in mass inputs (accumulation, mainly from atmospheric
precipitation) and mass losses (ablation, mainly melting and
evaporation). In this paper, we do not consider the ice sheets of
Greenland and Antarctica.
The importance of understanding the relation between glacier
fluctuations and climate variations has long been recognized, and led
to the founding of the International Commission on Glaciers (now the
International Commission on Snow and Ice) in 1894 (1). Some short term
and sporadic measurements of volume change were carried out in the late
19th and early 20th centuries in the Alps (2) and in the early 20th
century in the Arctic (3). Thorarinsson in 1940 (4) was the first to
attempt a global analysis of a wide range of glaciological information
(e.g., front positions, area changes) and to extend that analysis back
into the 18th century. He also apparently made the first calculation of
glacier volume change from 1850 (believed to be the maximum glacier
extension since the Ice Age in some areas) and its contribution to
sea-level rise. The general conclusions from this analysis, that the
present glacier shrinkage is a universal phenomenon and that the global recession of glaciers has taken place in several stages of ever increasing intensity, interrupted by intervals of stagnation or advance, are still valid.
A bridge between these early conclusions and our present-day knowledge
of glacier regime is found in time-series modeling of volume changes
that extend from the observations of the 1960s-1990s back to the end
of the 19th century. These are calculated by glaciometeorologic (precipitation-temperature) models, described in detail by, for instance, Tangborn (5). We use only time series calibrated with direct
observations for the last 30 or more years. These measured-reconstructed curves (Fig. 1)
show predominantly volume shrinkage and at an increasing rate. They
also show temporal and spatial variability in the rate of volume
changes, from periods of sharp gains to periods of major losses of
mass, and simultaneous advances and retreats of different glaciers. One
can conclude that the present-day wastage of glacier volume is, on the
average, part of a continuous process started in or before the 19th
century, after the end of Little Ice Age maximum. Climate became
warmer, and glaciers continued losing volume in response to this
change. However, the rate of loss has been accelerating recently; this suggests that it is not just a simple adjustment to the end of an
"anomalous" Little Ice Age, as some have claimed.
Research Articles / Geophysics
Twentieth century climate change: Evidence from small glaciers
and
Department of Geological Sciences, University of
Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309
Abstract
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Abstract
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1 in water
equivalent, totaling 3.7 × 103 km3 over
37 yr. The time series shows a shift during the mid-1970s, followed by
more rapid loss of ice volume and further acceleration in the last
decade; this is consistent with climatologic data. Perhaps most
significant is an increase in annual accumulation along with an
increase in melting; these produce a marked increase in the annual
turnover or amplitude. The rise in air temperature suggested by the
temperature sensitivities of glaciers in cold regions is somewhat
greater than the global average temperature rise derived largely from
low altitude gauges, and the warming is accelerating.
Article
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Fig. 1.
Selected long-term series of cumulative volume changes for glaciers in
different geographical regions: South Cascade (North Cascades,
Washington), Gries (Alps, Switzerland), Storbreen (Jotunheimen,
Norway), Abramov (Pamir, Kirgizstan), Kozelskiy (Kamchatka, Russia),
Djankuat (Caucasus, Russia), Maliy Aktru (Altaiy, Siberia, Russia),
IGAN (Polar Ural, Russia). All values are relative to 1890.
Here we present an analysis based on data of volume change of small glaciers collected since the end of World War II. The main goal of this study is to advance understanding and provide new information on climate change as shown by modern glaciers.
Data Sources for Analysis. The main sources of data are series of annual glacier mass-balance values. These measurements started after 1946 on a regular basis. Before the International Geophysical Year (1957-1959), fewer than 10 glaciers were observed. The number of measured glaciers has grown rapidly since the International Geophysical Year and reached a maximum of 70-90 time-series annually in the middle of the 1970s. Mass balances of more than 260 glaciers have been measured at one time or another. All of these data are included in our analyses, but we emphasize the 1961-1997 period of time because this period is provided with the most observational data. The length of mass balance measurement records varies from 1 to 37 yr with an average duration of 10 yr.
Our database has been compiled from many sources of information, including the seven existing volumes of "Fluctuations of Glaciers" and five "Glacier Mass Balance Bulletins" published by the World Monitoring Service (6). Many additional publications and some unpublished data were used to create what is probably the most complete global data set. Data were digitized, quality-checked, and analyzed. A description of the data used is given in our recent publications (7-9) and by Cogley and Adams (10), and will soon appear on the Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research web site (Instaar.colorado.edu/Geoglacier/). The glaciers involved in this study are sparsely distributed over many mountain and subpolar regions, but most of the information on glacier volume change is from the Northern Hemisphere, particularly from Northwestern North America, the Canadian Archipelago, Scandinavia, European Alps, Svalbard, Iceland, East Africa, Caucasus, Central Asia, Altaiy, Kamchatka, and Polar Ural Mountains. Very short time series are available from the Russian Arctic, Labrador, Pyrenees, South America, Subantarctic islands, New Zealand, and New Guinea. Therefore, we emphasize results from the Northern Hemisphere.Changes in Glacier Volume.
Here we report mass (water-equivalent volume) changes per glacier area
per year, 
V, in dimensions of millimeters (or meters) per
year, instead of the more usual units of annual or net mass balances,
which should be but are not always identical. We calculate
V by using the reported or interpolated glacier area for
the year of observation, to avoid the problem of considering the
dynamic response of a glacier to a history of non-zero mass balances.
Glaciers constantly change in area, length, and thickness, but the
precipitation input minus the melting output (the annual or net mass
balance) integrated over the instantaneous area is, by continuity, a
true measure of the change in volume; this is especially important for
studies of their effect on current sea level. Some mass balance values
in the literature are point values integrated over an unchanging area,
an approach we reject. The actual dimensions of a glacier at any
moment, of course, reflect a dynamic adjustment to a mass balance
history with an e-folding time of a few years to several decades or so
(11), which is important for reconstructing a history of climate variations.
V are presented in Fig. 2.
These curves for 1961-1997 resemble those shown in Fig. 1 but give
more detail with greater accuracy (the error in measurements is
about ± 0.1-0.2 m in water equivalent per year for glaciers
presented here). Internal accumulation (refreezing of meltwater within
the glacier) has been considered where it is likely to be a significant
process. Several features can be recognized:
|
V for the
period 1961-1997 for individual glaciers in mainland North America
reaches 40 meters and 30 meters in the Alps and in Scandinavia (including Svalbard), suggesting differences in large-scale or mesoscale climatic conditions.
Glaciers in cold and dry regions (e.g., Canadian Arctic) demonstrate
trends of shrinkage that are internally rather consistent, but with
relatively low changes in V due to the precipitation regime (Fig. 2a). Koerner and Lundgaard (12), who are
responsible for obtaining most of these data, imply that the
"warming trend" indicated by changes in these glaciers in the
last 100 yr "... is part of natural variability of climate rather
than due to anthropogenic effects" (ref. 12, p. 434) Without
commenting on the cause of this warming, we note that the volume-change
trends in this region are consistent with those elsewhere in the world
and that a global cause seems likely. The Canadian Arctic sample
presents cold ice caps in which thickness change is not as large as in
more maritime climates and in which spatial differentiation also is not
as large as in the other regions.
Glaciers situated at high altitudes in Asia (low temperature and
relatively dry climates) also show a common trend of reducing volume
(Fig. 2e), especially glaciers in Central Asia (Pamir and Tien Shan). On the other hand, many glaciers in moist, maritime regions
(e.g., Blue, Nigards, Ålfot, Hardanger) are growing (Fig. 2b, c).
In addition to these long and continuous time series of volume change,
we use all direct measurements of glacier mass balance, because we
found a rather strong correlation (r 0.90) between long-term
mass-balance series (50 glaciers with V time-series longer than 20 yr) and series with all 260 glaciers. This has helped to
expand the time series over the period of time from 1961 to 1997, in
spite of some gaps in data and the fact that many records from 1994 to
1997 are not yet complete. We use these time series to calculate annual
values of glacier mass balance and V averaged for all
time series (Fig. 2f). This was done by averaging
the mass balances of all glaciers within six major glacier regions (and
in a number of subregions), then calculating a hemispheric average
weighting each region by the glacier area in that region. The averaged
annual decrease in glacier volume has been 
147
mm·yr1 in water equivalent. This specific
value multiplied by the estimated area of all small glaciers (680 × 103 km2) (13) gives
about 100 km3·yr1,
or about 3.7 × 103
km3 of volume loss over 37 yr. This is our most
recent estimate of a global total.
Obviously, this is an imperfect estimate of the sum of glacier wastage,
because the data are sparse and not homogenously distributed. However,
this estimate includes all available data and recognizes the
substantial differences between different regions. It is difficult to
estimate the error in the cumulative sum because of the possibility of
both random and systematic errors (10). The apparent variances in
individual years causes a standard error of estimate of the total
of only 30 mm (0.5% for 99% probability) for our sample, but other
errors surely raise this number to at least several percent. We note
that Oerlemans' calculation by a very different method matches our
results closely (14).
Additional evidence of pervasive glacier wastage is shown by the
decrease in the average value of the ratio between accumulation area
and total glacier area (AAR) from about 0.55 to about 0.42 during the
period 1968-1975. Note that a glacier with an AAR <0.56 is not likely
to be in a steady-state condition (15). Along with this, the averaged
equilibrium line altitude (ELA, the altitude separating the
accumulation and ablation areas) has increased by about 480 m. The
decrease in AAR and increase in ELA has exposed larger ice areas with
low albedo and increased ice melting with a further tendency to reduce
glacier volume, a positive feedback pointed out by Bodvarsson (16).
Climate Analysis Based on Time Series of V and Related
Characteristics.
The 1961-1997 time series.
The time-series of V allow a more detailed climate
analysis, especially when combined with information derived from other
glaciological variables. Winter balance, bw, is a measure of the amount of snow precipitated on a glacier surface from October until May (in the Northern Hemisphere). Summer balance, bs,
is related to glacier meltwater runoff plus evaporation from June to
September. (This is not strictly true for iceberg-calving glaciers or
those which exist at a temperature below the freezing point because
some meltwater is refrozen and becomes accumulation.) These two
variables are closely related to climate; both balances are averaged
here for the 23 glaciers with long, continuous measurements. The annual
turnover or amplitude 
[= (|bw| + |bs|)/2] characterizes the glacier regime (17). Our
calculation shows that has not been constant over the period of
study but has increased substantially (Fig.
3). This increase is possibly related to
increased heat energy absorbed, accompanied by increased moisture
production because the amount of snow accumulation has increased in
high mountain and in subpolar regions (9). The increase in is also
accompanied by increases in the interannual variances of bw
(Fig. 3). This variance is computed as the standard deviation of all
measured balances from the mean balance for each year.
|
118 mm/yr, as area-weighted averages over the 30-yr climatologic reference period 1961-1990, are presented in Fig. 4. These departures show the
change in the late 1970s toward a significant trend of decreasing
glacier volume. This shift in the late 1970s corresponds with a shift
in climate reported in several recent publications. Miller et
al. (18) identified an abrupt shift in the basic state of the
atmosphere-ocean climate system over the North Pacific Ocean during
the 1976-1977 winter season. Trenberth noted that the Aleutian Low
deepened, causing storm tracks to shift southward and to increase storm
intensity (19). This shift in climate was illustrated by Ebbesmeyer
et al. (20) in a composite time-series of 40 environmental
variables, which suggests an abrupt change in climate during the winter
1976-1977. McCabe and Fountain (21) determined that the mid-1970s
climate shift was followed by a decrease in net mass balance of South Cascade Glacier (Washington State) and a simultaneous increase in the
net mass balance of Wolverine Glacier (Alaska). Hodge et al.
(22) confirmed statistically that this was a significant change in
mass-balance series for three glaciers in Alaska and Washington. Cao
(23) found an abrupt change in glacier mass balance in the Tien Shan
and attributed this change to a mid-1970s climate transition that was
initiated in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Our volume change data from
small glaciers supports these conclusions on the global scale and
demonstrates the usefulness of short-term glacier-volume fluctuations
for detection of climate changes.
|
81 mm·yr1 during the period 1961-1976
to 198 mm·yr1 during the 1977-1997
period; this is equivalent to a change in the rate of sea-level rise
attributable to glacier wastage from 0.15 to 0.37 mm·yr1. The rate of change of the global
annual mass balance during this period was modestly negative (5.9
mm·yr2). The mass balance sensitivity, the
partial derivative of annual balance with respect to air
temperature,§
measured over this interval was 0.37
m·°C1·yr1,
lower than most of those reported in the literature (26, 27).
The seasonal mass balance changes (9) and seasonal sensitivities based
on them (27) are interesting. During this period, the winter balances
became more positive and the summer balances became more negative,
which caused a marked increase in the annual amplitude (Fig. 3). The
apparent winter balance sensitivity was high (1.31 m·°C1·yr1)
as was the summer balance (0.99
m·°C1·yr1).
(The sum of these seasonal sensitivities is slightly different from the
value given above for the annual sensitivity because different
time-series aggregations had to be used.) Although this period may have
been unusual, these significantly different sensitivities suggest that
any attempt to project glacier behavior into the future, for instance,
to estimate sea-level rise, will need to consider the seasonality of
glacier mass balances and climate.
In addition to the shift in the winter of 1976-1977, the data
presented in Fig. 4 illustrate a trend to even more negative V since the end of the 1980s. In terms of air
temperature, it was reported that the end of the 1980s and 1990s have
been the warmest years of this millennium for the Northern Hemisphere (24, 28). The change in global V was not uniform in the
1990s (Fig. 4). In 1992 and 1993, V was close to zero (Fig. 2f), possibly because of the explosive
eruption of Mt. Pinatubo (June, 1991). The cooling of global surface
temperature after the eruption reached a maximum of 0.3 to 0.5°C
during 1992 (24). In terms of the global water balance, this short-term
cooling equates to 360 km3 of water stored by
glaciers, or to 1 mm of sea-level fall.
Spatial Pattern of Glacier Volume Changes.
Many glacier-climate studies focus on studies of the relations between
local or regional climate and V or mass balance of
glaciers (e.g., refs. 21, 22, and 29-31). These studies are useful for
understanding physical interactions between climate and glaciers on
regional to global scales. The process interrelating atmospheric
circulation, surface meteorological parameters (e.g., air temperature
and precipitation), and glacier V is very complex. We
found that the spatial covariance among glaciers of annual
V may range from strong to weak, and positive or negative, over the Northern Hemisphere (9). Distant glaciers may
correlate more strongly than neighboring glaciers, showing the
existence of teleconnections involving regional atmospheric circulation
patterns. The correlation structure of V with atmospheric
pressure anomalies is partly explained by changes in the winter balance
(bw). A principle components analysis (32) shows
that 46% of the bw variability is explained by
the first two primary circulation modes, which are also correlated with the Arctic Oscillation Index and the Southern Oscillation Index. This
analysis also explains the current growth in certain maritime glaciers
(Fig. 2 b and c). The other components of
variability may be explained by summer mass balance
(bs) and local glacier properties.
Discussion.
On short time scales, e.g., annual, V of glaciers
respond to change in climate with little delay. Autocorrelation analysis of our time series of V shows that, within the confidence level of 0.95, there is about a 1-yr lag between volume changes in consecutive years. This is to be expected because the albedo
effect of a non-zero balance year may have some carryover effect to the
next year (22). Note that this analysis avoids the problem of multiyear
or longer dynamic response times (11) because V is always
related to the instantaneous glacier area. Annual changes in volume can
thus be considered to be almost simultaneous with annual changes in
weather. Therefore, glacier volume changes can be attributed to
(i) changes in atmospheric circulation patterns (atmospheric
pressure fields) at regional or global scales; and/or (ii)
changes in local weather patterns and/or peculiarities of glacier
topography and size, which may involve local variables, such as changes
in wind regime and local precipitation trajectories, snow avalanches,
changes in albedo, moraine cover, and others.
ba/T) is a function of precipitation
(high-precipitation regions have higher sensitivity). Our
global-average data, showing increases in both melting (related to
temperature) and accumulation (related to precipitation), are in
agreement with this result. The increase in bw is
particularly remarkable because it has occurred in spite of a reduction
in the size of the accumulation area. Thus, significantly increased
precipitation at high altitudes is indicated.
The increase in both accumulation and ablation does not seem to have
been noted for previous periods of observation. The earlier analyses,
e.g., ref. 4, did not show such a phenomenon. This may be because
previous workers did not have as complete and detailed data sets. But
it is also possible that the relationship between glacier mass balance
components and climate elements has changed in recent decades because
of global warming. The increase in mass turnover shown by in Fig. 3
may be attributable to additional energy received by glacier surfaces
in recent decades. This extra latent heat used to increase melting has
been accompanied by increased snow accumulation on glacier surface,
which stores latent heat in the glacier (potential heat required to
melt the extra snow). We are also witnessing an interesting process in
which glacier wastage in some regions is accompanied by glacier growth
in other areas.
The annual-balance sensitivity to temperature
(ba/T) is used for most projections of
glacier wastage and its contribution to sea-level rise. Typical
published values of mass-balance sensitivity unadjusted for
precipitation change range from about 0.3 to 1 m·°C1·yr1
with an average of about 0.7 m·°C1·yr1
(e.g., refs. 26 and 27). Using the observed change in glacier volumes,
this suggests a temperature rise of 0.34°C over 37 yr, or 0.009 °C·yr1. Oerlemans (34) uses glacier
dynamics modeling of measured glacier retreats, scaled by region, to
estimate an annual temperature rise of 0.62°C from 1884 to 1978. The
rise of global average surface temperature change for 1901-1997 was
about 0.62°C or 0.0065°C·yr1 (24).
Because of the range of volume-change variability among glaciers
(Fig. 2), sensitivity values derived from a limited number of glaciers
must be used with caution. The sensitivities suggest that the recent
rise in air temperature in glacier regions is somewhat greater than the
modeled global average derived largely from low altitude
gauges, and the warming is accelerating.
Conclusions. Loss in glacier volume on a global scale started in the middle of the 19th century and continued in several stages of ever-increasing rates, interrupted by short intervals of stagnation or growth. The acceleration of glacier wastage is not inherited from previous epochs.
Time series of volume changes show much spatial and temporal variability. Changes in winter balance are correlated in part with spatial and temporal distributions of atmospheric circulation patterns. Glacier volume changes currently seem to show increased snow accumulation and positive volume changes in some maritime regions, especially in the last several decades. Those in continental regions generally are losing volume at an accelerating rate. Thus, glaciers demonstrate different trends of volume change in different geographical locations. The climate in Northern Hemisphere glacier areas became warmer and more humid during the last decades, especially since a climatic shift around 1977. This appears to be an unusual change, possibly of anthropogenic origin. Winter accumulation and summer melting have both increased with time, as has their temporal variability. We emphasize that this increase in the intensity of glacier regime (mass exchange) leads to a continuing addition to sea-level rise and a reduction in the speed of wastage. It is, however, clear that carefully measured glacier data are limited both temporally and spatially. Existing records need to be expanded to better understand the relations between glacier volume change and climatic driving forces.| |
Acknowledgements |
|---|
This work was supported by National Science Foundation Grants OPP-9530782 and OPP-9634289.
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Footnotes |
|---|
To whom reprint requests should be addressed. E-mail:
dyurg{at}tintin.colorado.edu.
§ This a different sensitivity than that used by the International Panel on Climate Change (25) that involves a change between two steady states.
This paper was submitted directly (Track II) to the PNAS office.
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J. P. Smol, A. P. Wolfe, H. J. B. Birks, M. S. V. Douglas, V. J. Jones, A. Korhola, R. Pienitz, K. Ruhland, S. Sorvari, D. Antoniades, et al. Climate-driven regime shifts in the biological communities of arctic lakes PNAS, March 22, 2005; 102(12): 4397 - 4402. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
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J. O. Dickey, S. L. Marcus, O. de Viron, and I. Fukumori Recent Earth Oblateness Variations: Unraveling Climate and Postglacial Rebound Effects Science, December 6, 2002; 298(5600): 1975 - 1977. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
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C. M. Cox and B. F. Chao Detection of a Large-Scale Mass Redistribution in the Terrestrial System Since 1998 Science, August 2, 2002; 297(5582): 831 - 833. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
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A. A. Arendt, K. A. Echelmeyer, W. D. Harrison, C. S. Lingle, and V. B. Valentine Rapid Wastage of Alaska Glaciers and Their Contribution to Rising Sea Level Science, July 19, 2002; 297(5580): 382 - 386. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
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M. F. Meier and J. M. Wahr Sea level is rising: Do we know why? PNAS, May 14, 2002; 99(10): 6524 - 6526. [Full Text] [PDF]
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S. Levitus, J. I. Antonov, J. Wang, T. L. Delworth, K. W. Dixon, and A. J. Broccoli Anthropogenic Warming of Earth's Climate System Science, April 13, 2001; 292(5515): 267 - 270. [Abstract] [Full Text]
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S. M. Stanley The past climate change heats up PNAS, February 15, 2000; 97(4): 1319 - 1319. [Full Text] [PDF]
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T. V. Lowell As climate changes, so do glaciers PNAS, February 15, 2000; 97(4): 1351 - 1354. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
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