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Published online on January 9, 2006, 10.1073/pnas.0503776103
PNAS | January 17, 2006 | vol. 103 | no. 3 | 547-552
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AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES
Heterogeneous shedding of Escherichia coli O157 in cattle and its implications for control

L. Matthews *, {dagger}, J.C. Low {ddagger}, D. L. Gally §, M. C. Pearce *, {ddagger}, D. J. Mellor ¶, J. A. P. Heesterbeek ||, M. Chase-Topping *, S. W. Naylor {ddagger}, D. J. Shaw **, S. W. J. Reid ¶, G. J. Gunn {ddagger}, and M. E. J. Woolhouse *

*Centre for Infectious Diseases, College of Medicine and Veterinary Medicine, University of Edinburgh, Easter Bush, Roslin, Midlothian EH25 9RG, United Kingdom; {ddagger}Scottish Agricultural College Animal Health Group, Scottish Agricultural College, King's Buildings, West Mains Road, Edinburgh EH9 3JG, United Kingdom; §Zoonotic and Animal Pathogens Research Laboratory, Medical Microbiology, Edinburgh University, Edinburgh EH8 9AG, United Kingdom; Institute of Comparative Medicine, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Glasgow, Bearsden Road, Glasgow G61 1QH, United Kingdom; ||Theoretical Epidemiology, Department of Farm Animal Health, University of Utrecht, Yalelaan 7, 3584 CL, Utrecht, The Netherlands; and **Veterinary Clinical Studies, R(D)SVS, University of Edinburgh, Easter Bush, Roslin, Midlothian EH25 9RG, United Kingdom

Edited by Roy Curtiss, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, and approved November 27, 2005 (received for review May 6, 2005)

Identification of the relative importance of within- and between-host variability in infectiousness and the impact of these heterogeneities on the transmission dynamics of infectious agents can enable efficient targeting of control measures. Cattle, a major reservoir host for the zoonotic pathogen Escherichia coli O157, are known to exhibit a high degree of heterogeneity in bacterial shedding densities. By relating bacterial count to infectiousness and fitting dynamic epidemiological models to prevalence data from a cross-sectional survey of cattle farms in Scotland, we identify a robust pattern: {approx}80% of the transmission arises from the 20% most infectious individuals. We examine potential control options under a range of assumptions about within- and between-host variability in infection dynamics. Our results show that the within-herd basic reproduction ratio, R0, could be reduced to <1 with targeted measures aimed at preventing infection in the 5% of individuals with the highest overall infectiousness. Alternatively, interventions such as vaccination or the use of probiotics that aim to reduce bacterial carriage could produce dramatic reductions in R0 by preventing carriage at concentrations corresponding to the top few percent of the observed range of counts. We conclude that a greater understanding of the cause of the heterogeneity in bacterial carriage could lead to highly efficient control measures to reduce the prevalence of E. coli O157.

bacterial count | core groups | super shedder | superspreading | targeted control

Conflict of interest statement: No conflicts declared.

This paper was submitted directly (Track II) to the PNAS office.

Freely available online through the PNAS open access option.

Abbreviation: cfu, colony-forming unit.

{dagger} To whom correspondence should be sent at the present address: Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Glasgow, Bearsden Road, Glasgow G61 1QH, United Kingdom. E-mail: l.matthews{at}vet.gla.ac.uk.

© 2006 by The National Academy of Sciences of the USA


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