ChemBridge Corporation Screening Compounds Sign up for PNAS Online eTocs
Link: Info for AuthorsLink: Editorial BoardLink: AboutLink: SubscribeLink: AdvertiseLink: ContactLink: Sitemap Link: PNAS Home
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Link: Current Issue "" Link: Archives "" Link: Online Submission ""  Link: Advanced Search

Published online on February 7, 2008, 10.1073/pnas.0705414105
PNAS | February 12, 2008 | vol. 105 | no. 6 | 1786-1793
OPEN ACCESS ARTICLE


This Article
Free via Open Access: OA
Right arrow Figures Only
Right arrow OA Full Text
Right arrow Full Text (PDF)
Right arrow Supporting Information
Right arrow Alert me when this article is cited
Right arrow Alert me if a correction is posted
Right arrow Citation Map
Services
Right arrow Email this article to a colleague
Right arrow Related articles in PNAS
Right arrow Similar articles in this journal
Right arrow Similar articles in ISI Web of Science
Right arrow Similar articles in PubMed
Right arrow Alert me to new issues of the journal
Right arrow Add to My File Cabinet
Right arrow Download to citation manager
Right arrow Request Copyright Permission
Citing Articles
Right arrow Citing Articles via HighWire
Right arrow Citing Articles via CrossRef
Google Scholar
Right arrow Articles by Lenton, T. M.
Right arrow Articles by Schellnhuber, H. J.
PubMed
Right arrow PubMed Citation
Right arrow Articles by Lenton, T. M.
Right arrow Articles by Schellnhuber, H. J.
Related Content
Right arrow Inaugural Articles
Right arrow Sustainability Science
Social Bookmarking
Add to CiteULike   Add to Complore   Add to Connotea   Add to Del.icio.us   Add to Digg  
What's this?

 Previous Article  | Table of Contents |  Next Article 

Inaugural Article
PERSPECTIVE / PHYSICAL SCIENCES / SUSTAINABILITY SCIENCE
Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system

Timothy M. Lenton*,{dagger}, Hermann Held{ddagger}, Elmar Kriegler{ddagger},§, Jim W. Hall, Wolfgang Lucht{ddagger}, Stefan Rahmstorf{ddagger}, and Hans Joachim Schellnhuber{dagger},{ddagger},||,**

*School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, and Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Norwich NR4 7TJ, United Kingdom; {ddagger}Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany; §Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-3890; School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Newcastle University, and Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Newcastle NE1 7RU, United Kingdom; and ||Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University, and Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Oxford OX1 3QY, United Kingdom

Edited by William C. Clark, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, and approved November 21, 2007 (received for review June 8, 2007)

The term "tipping point" commonly refers to a critical threshold at which a tiny perturbation can qualitatively alter the state or development of a system. Here we introduce the term "tipping element" to describe large-scale components of the Earth system that may pass a tipping point. We critically evaluate potential policy-relevant tipping elements in the climate system under anthropogenic forcing, drawing on the pertinent literature and a recent international workshop to compile a short list, and we assess where their tipping points lie. An expert elicitation is used to help rank their sensitivity to global warming and the uncertainty about the underlying physical mechanisms. Then we explain how, in principle, early warning systems could be established to detect the proximity of some tipping points.

Earth system | tipping points | climate change | large-scale impacts | climate policy

Freely available online through the PNAS open access option.

**This contribution is part of the special series of Inaugural Articles by members of the National Academy of Sciences elected on May 3, 2005.

Author contributions: T.M.L., H.H., E.K., J.W.H., and H.J.S. designed research; T.M.L., H.H., E.K., J.W.H., W.L., S.R., and H.J.S. performed research; T.M.L., H.H., E.K., and J.W.H. analyzed data; and T.M.L., H.H., E.K., and H.J.S. wrote the paper.

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

This article is a PNAS Direct Submission.

This article contains supporting information online at www.pnas.org/cgi/content/full/0705414105/DC1.

{dagger}To whom correspondence may be addressed. E-mail: t.lenton{at}uea.ac.uk or john{at}pik-potsdam.de

© 2008 by The National Academy of Sciences of the USA


Add to CiteULike CiteULike   Add to Complore Complore   Add to Connotea Connotea   Add to Del.icio.us Del.icio.us   Add to Digg Digg    What's this?

Related articles in PNAS:

Profile of Hans Joachim Schellnhuber
Kaspar Mossman
PNAS 2008 105: 1783-1785. [Extract] [Full Text]  



This article has been cited by other articles in HighWire Press-hosted journals:


Home page
 Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USAHome page
K. Mossman
Profile of Hans Joachim Schellnhuber
PNAS, February 12, 2008; 105(6): 1783 - 1785.
[Full Text] [PDF]