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Rice yields decline with higher night temperature from global warming

  1. Shaobing Peng *,
  2. Jianliang Huang †,
  3. John E. Sheehy *,
  4. Rebecca C. Laza *,
  5. Romeo M. Visperas *,
  6. Xuhua Zhong ‡,
  7. Grace S. Centeno *,
  8. Gurdev S. Khush § , , and
  9. Kenneth G. Cassman , ∥
  1. *Crop, Soil, and Water Sciences Division, International Rice Research Institute, DAPO Box 7777, Metro Manila, Philippines; †Crop Physiology and Production Center, College of Plant Science and Technology, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, Hubei 430070, China; ‡Rice Research Institute, Guangdong Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510640, China; §University of California, Davis, CA 95616; and ∥Department of Agronomy and Horticulture, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE 68583

  1. Contributed by Gurdev S. Khush, May 27, 2004

Abstract

The impact of projected global warming on crop yields has been evaluated by indirect methods using simulation models. Direct studies on the effects of observed climate change on crop growth and yield could provide more accurate information for assessing the impact of climate change on crop production. We analyzed weather data at the International Rice Research Institute Farm from 1979 to 2003 to examine temperature trends and the relationship between rice yield and temperature by using data from irrigated field experiments conducted at the International Rice Research Institute Farm from 1992 to 2003. Here we report that annual mean maximum and minimum temperatures have increased by 0.35°C and 1.13°C, respectively, for the period 1979–2003 and a close linkage between rice grain yield and mean minimum temperature during the dry cropping season (January to April). Grain yield declined by 10% for each 1°C increase in growing-season minimum temperature in the dry season, whereas the effect of maximum temperature on crop yield was insignificant. This report provides a direct evidence of decreased rice yields from increased nighttime temperature associated with global warming.

Footnotes

  • ↵ To whom correspondence may be addressed. E-mail: kcassman{at}unlnotes.unl.edu or gurdev{at}khush.org.

  • Abbreviations: IRRI, International Rice Research Institute; ha, hectare.

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