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Dynamical resonance can account for seasonality of influenza epidemics

  1. Jonathan Dushoff * , † , ‡,
  2. Joshua B. Plotkin §,
  3. Simon A. Levin *, and
  4. David J. D. Earn
  1. *Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540; †Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892; §Harvard Society of Fellows, 78 Mount Auburn Street, Cambridge, MA 02138; and Department of Mathematics and Statistics, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada L8S 4K1

  1. Contributed by Simon A. Levin, October 6, 2004

Abstract

Influenza incidence exhibits strong seasonal fluctuations in temperate regions throughout the world, concentrating the mortality and morbidity burden of the disease into a few months each year. The cause of influenza's seasonality has remained elusive. Here we show that the large oscillations in incidence may be caused by undetectably small seasonal changes in the influenza transmission rate that are amplified by dynamical resonance.

Footnotes

  • ↵ ‡ To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: dushoff{at}eno.princeton.edu.

  • Author contributions: J.D., D.J.D.E., and J.B.P. designed research; J.D. performed research; and J.D., J.B.P., S.A.L., and D.J.D.E. wrote the paper.

  • Abbreviations: SIR, susceptible, infectious, recovered; SIRS, SIR-susceptible.

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