Mortality traps and the dynamics of health transitions
- Department of Population and International Health, Harvard School of Public Health, 665 Huntington Avenue, Boston, MA 02115
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Edited by Barry R. Bloom, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA, and approved August 10, 2007 (received for review March 12, 2007)
Abstract
An examination of life expectancy in 1963 reveals twin peaks in the empirical distribution across countries: one group of countries clustered around a life expectancy of 40 years and a second group clustered around a life expectancy of 65 years. By 2003, the mode of each cluster had moved up by ≈10 years. Although the two groups are similar in that within each of them, there is progress toward higher life expectancy, a number of countries appear to have made the jump from the high-mortality cluster to the low-mortality cluster. We reject the hypothesis that these changes reflect a simple convergence process. The data instead suggest continuous advances among many countries within clusters, with advances in life expectancy in some nations resulting in a jump from one cluster to the other.
Footnotes
- *To whom correspondence may be addressed. E-mail: dbloom{at}hsph.harvard.edu or dcanning{at}hsph.harvard.edu
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Author contributions: D.E.B. and D.C. designed research, performed research, analyzed data, and wrote the paper.
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This paper is part of a special series on Sustainable Health. See the related editorial on page 15969 and accompanying articles on pages 16038, 16194, and 16263.
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The authors declare no conflict of interest.
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This article is a PNAS Direct Submission.
- © 2007 by The National Academy of Sciences of the USA
