The impact of climate change on smallholder and subsistence agriculture
-
Edited by William Easterling, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, and accepted by the Editorial Board September 26, 2007 (received for review March 2, 2007)
Abstract
Some of the most important impacts of global climate change will be felt among the populations, predominantly in developing countries, referred to as “subsistence” or “smallholder” farmers. Their vulnerability to climate change comes both from being predominantly located in the tropics, and from various socioeconomic, demographic, and policy trends limiting their capacity to adapt to change. However, these impacts will be difficult to model or predict because of (i) the lack of standardised definitions of these sorts of farming system, and therefore of standard data above the national level, (ii) intrinsic characteristics of these systems, particularly their complexity, their location-specificity, and their integration of agricultural and nonagricultural livelihood strategies, and (iii) their vulnerability to a range of climate-related and other stressors. Some recent work relevant to these farming systems is reviewed, a conceptual framework for understanding the diverse forms of impacts in an integrated manner is proposed, and future research needs are identified.
Footnotes
- *E-mail: j.f.morton{at}gre.ac.uk
-
Author contributions: J.F.M. designed research, performed research, analyzed data, and wrote the paper.
-
The author declares no conflict of interest.
-
This article is a PNAS Direct Submission. W.E. is a guest editor invited by the Editorial Board.
-
↵ † One suspects that it was in this sense that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change mandated specific inclusion of “subsistence agriculture” in the Fourth Assessment Report.
-
↵ ‡ There appears to be some inconsistency between tables in the 1992 IFAD figures, but they do not significantly affect the argument here.
- © 2007 by The National Academy of Sciences of the USA










