Winter teleconnections can predict the ensuing summer European crop productivity
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Fig. 1.Impacts of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Scandinavia Pattern (SCA) on European vegetation productivity and wheat yield. The climatic oscillation anomalies are calculated as a mean value of December of the preceding year and January, February, and March of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and wheat yield year. All of the climatic oscillation indices, NDVI, and wheat yield data were detrended. The significance level was set at 95% confidence level from a two-tailed Student t test. The annually aggregated growing-season 30-y (1982–2011) 8-km satellite NDVI data were obtained from the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies third-generation (NDVI3g). Climatic oscillation indices were obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov). The 33-y (1980–2012) national scale wheat yield (tons per hectare) data were obtained from Food and Agricultural Organization (faostat.fao.org) for European countries.
