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Why the US science and engineering workforce is aging rapidly

  1. Bruce A. Weinberga,b,c
  1. aDepartment of Economics, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210;
  2. bInstitute of Labor Economics (IZA), 53113 Bonn, Germany;
  3. cNational Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA 02138

  1. Edited by Shirley M. Tilghman, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, and approved February 14, 2017 (received for review August 12, 2016)

Significance

The science and engineering workforce has aged rapidly, both absolutely and relative to the workforce, which is a concern if the large number of older scientists crowds out younger scientists. Moreover, scientists are believed to be most creative earlier in their careers, so the aging of the workforce may slow the pace of scientific progress. We study the causes of this aging, showing that a substantial majority is a result of the aging of the large baby boom cohort of scientists, but the elimination of mandatory retirement in universities in 1994 was also an important factor. Strikingly, current patterns imply a steady-state mean age 2.3 y higher than the 2008 level of 48.6.

Abstract

The science and engineering workforce has aged rapidly in recent years, both in absolute terms and relative to the workforce as a whole. This is a potential concern if the large number of older scientists crowds out younger scientists, making it difficult for them to establish independent careers. In addition, scientists are believed to be most creative earlier in their careers, so the aging of the workforce may slow the pace of scientific progress. We develop and simulate a demographic model, which shows that a substantial majority of recent aging is a result of the aging of the large baby boom cohort of scientists. However, changes in behavior have also played a significant role, in particular, a decline in the retirement rate of older scientists, induced in part by the elimination of mandatory retirement in universities in 1994. Furthermore, the age distribution of the scientific workforce is still adjusting. Current retirement rates and other determinants of employment in science imply a steady-state mean age 2.3 y higher than the 2008 level of 48.6.

Footnotes

  • ↵1To whom correspondence should be addressed. Email: blau.12{at}osu.edu.

  • Author contributions: D.M.B. and B.A.W. designed research, performed research, analyzed data, and wrote the paper.

  • Conflict of interest statement: The authors declare B.A.W. was supported under P01 AG039347 directly by the National Bureau of Economic Research and on a subcontract to Ohio State University.

  • This article is a PNAS Direct Submission.

  • Data deposition: The data are restricted use data from the Survey of Doctorate Recipients, which are available from the National Science Foundation subject to their application process. We will make our code available upon request.

  • This article contains supporting information online at www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.1611748114/-/DCSupplemental.

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