Global cost estimates of reducing carbon emissions through avoided deforestation

doi:10.1073/pnas.0710616105

Global cost estimates of reducing carbon emissions through avoided deforestation

*International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria;
^†Department of Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210;
^§Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA 94720;
^¶U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC 20460;
^‖TerraCarbon, 8043 Graz, Austria;
**Center for International Forestry Research, CEP 66.095-100 Belém-PA, Brazil; and
^††RTI International, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709

Edited by Pamela A. Matson, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, and approved May 20, 2008 (received for review November 8, 2007)

Abstract

Tropical deforestation is estimated to cause about one-quarter of anthropogenic carbon emissions, loss of biodiversity, and other environmental services. United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change talks are now considering mechanisms for avoiding deforestation (AD), but the economic potential of AD has yet to be addressed. We use three economic models of global land use and management to analyze the potential contribution of AD activities to reduced greenhouse gas emissions. AD activities are found to be a competitive, low-cost abatement option. A program providing a 10% reduction in deforestation from 2005 to 2030 could provide 0.3–0.6 Gt (1 Gt = 1 × 10⁵ g) CO₂·yr⁻¹ in emission reductions and would require $0.4 billion to $1.7 billion·yr⁻¹ for 30 years. A 50% reduction in deforestation from 2005 to 2030 could provide 1.5–2.7 Gt CO₂·yr⁻¹ in emission reductions and would require $17.2 billion to $28.0 billion·yr⁻¹. Finally, some caveats to the analysis that could increase costs of AD programs are described.

Footnotes

^‡To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: sohngen.1{at}osu.edu
Author contributions: G.K., M.O., B. Sohngen, J.S., and K.A. designed research; G.K., M.O., B. Sohngen, and J.S. performed research; G.K., M.O., B. Sohngen, and J.S. contributed new reagents/analytic tools; G.K., M.O., B. Sohngen, J.S., K.A., and E.R. analyzed data; and G.K., M.O., B. Sohngen, J.S., K.A., B. Schlamadinger, S.W., and R.B. wrote the paper.
The authors declare no conflict of interest.
This article is a PNAS Direct Submission.
Freely available online through the PNAS open access option.