Event | Obs trend | ∆ magnitude from trend | ∆ return interval from trend | GCM-Obs comparison^{*} | GCM Historical trends | ∆ return interval from forcing | |||||

Trend P < 0.05 | ∆mag > 0 | >0 and trend P < 0.05 | Return ratio > 1 | >1 and trend P < 0.05 | A-D P > 0.05 | Trend fraction > 50% | >50% and A-D P > 0.05 | Trend fraction P < 0.05^{†} | Return ratio > 1 | >1 and A-D P > 0.05 | |

Peak summer monthly temperature | 0.79 | 0.97 | 0.78 | 0.97 | 0.78 | 0.71 | 0.81 | 0.58 | 0.64 | 0.83 | 0.59 |

Hottest day of the year | 0.41 | 0.82 | 0.40 | 0.83 | 0.40 | 0.83 | 0.82 | 0.69 | 0.73 | 0.85 | 0.70 |

Annual precipitation | 0.36 | 0.42 | 0.14 | 0.42 | 0.14 | 0.55 | 0.54 | 0.32 | 0.34 | 0.57 | 0.32 |

Wettest 5-d period of the year | 0.18 | 0.58 | 0.12 | 0.59 | 0.13 | 0.80 | 0.63 | 0.51 | 0.06 | 0.41 | 0.33 |

Reported value is the area-weighted fraction of available observations (calculated using the median grid point value, as illustrated in Fig. 1). Obs, observations.

↵* Comparison of GCM and observations using A-D test.

↵

^{†}Where >50% of GCM realizations agree with the observed sign of trend, and*P*value of trend fraction is <0.05.