Table 1.

Temperature ranges and associated sea-level ranges by the year 2100 for different IPCC emission scenarios

ScenarioTemperature range,°C above 1980–2000Model average,°C above 1980–2000Sea-level range,cm above 1990Model average,cm above 1990
B11.4–2.92.081–131104
A1T1.9–3.82.697–158124
B22.0–3.82.789–145114
A1B2.3–4.33.197–156124
A22.9–5.33.998–155124
A1FI3.4–6.14.6113–179143
  • The temperatures used are taken from the simple model emulation of 19 climate models as shown in figure 10.26 of the IPCC AR4 (2); they represent the mean ± 1 SD across all models, including carbon cycle uncertainty. The sea-level estimates were produced by using Eq. 2 and 342 temperature scenarios and are given here excluding the uncertainty of the statistical fit, which is approximately ± 7% (1 SD).