Table 2.

Long-run effect of the unemployment rate at different ages on completed fertility

Conceptions resulting in live birth per 1,000 women before age:
Dependent variable40 (col. 1)35 (col. 2)30 (col. 3)25 (col. 4)20 (col. 5)
Effect of average unemployment rate at ages:
 15–19−5.07−4.83−3.89−9.65**−7.37***
(7.60)(6.94)(5.95)(3.80)(2.10)
 20–24−14.21**−15.35**−14.56***−7.85*0.65
(6.02)(5.84)(5.56)(4.16)(2.30)
 25–295.411.271.66
(9.68)(6.97)(5.09)
 30–34−5.23−4.44
(16.30)(16.03)
 35–390.40
(12.83)
N510510510510510
Mean1,9161,7701,416900362
  • Coefficients from OLS regressions of completed fertility on the average unemployment rate at different periods of women’s fertile life cycles are displayed. The data are aggregated by women’s state and year of birth. US-born women of cohorts born 1961–1970 are included. All regressions include indicator variables for women’s state and year of birth. The unemployment rate refers to the weighted average unemployment rate across states where women from the relevant cohort gave birth, with the number of births as weights. SEs are shown in parentheses and are clustered by state of birth. Observations are weighted by cohort size. Significance levels: *P < 0.1; **P < 0.5; ***P < 0.01.