Table 1.

Projected 2050 CONUS load by sector and use in sector and projected percent and quantity of load for each use that is flexible and/or can be coupled with storage

(1) End-use sector(2) 2050 total load (GW)*(3) Percent of sector load (%)(4) Percent of load that is flexible (F) or coupled with TES (S) or used for H2 (H) (%)(5) 2050 load that is flexible or coupled with TES (GW)§(6) 2050 load used for H2 production and compression (GW)
Residential
 Air conditioning17.446.285 (S)14.820
 Air heating116.741.585 (S, H)99.230
 Water heating49.7917.785 (S)42.320
 Other97.3334.615 (S, H)14.600
Total residential281.310060.78171.00
Commercial
 Air conditioning23.197.9195 (S)22.020
 Refrigeration17.125.8450 (S)8.560
 Air heating106.336.2695 (S, H)100.950
 Water heating22.517.6895 (S)21.390
 Other124.042.315 (S, H)6.200
Total commercial293.110054.29159.10
Transportation292.610085.0 (F, S, H)108.9139.8
Industry
 Air conditioning6.610.93695 (S)6.280
 Refrigeration16.922.4050 (S)8.460
 Air heating37.445.30495 (S)35.570
 On-site transport5.070.7285 (F)4.310
 Hi-T/chem/elec procs615.487.1970 (F, H)390.4440.35
 Other24.353.45000
Total industry705.810068.77445.0540.35
All sectors1,572.867.66884.03180.2
  • Bold indicates a total amount.

  • * Total 2050 loads for each sector are from ref. 22 and include inflexible and flexible loads and loads coupled with storage. Column 2 minus columns 5 and 6 is inflexible load. Loads by category in each sector are obtained by multiplying the percent loads in column 3 by the total load in column 2.

  • Percent load is estimated from refs. 33, 34, and 35 for the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors, respectively.

  • A percent of load that is flexible is applied only to categories for which 100% of the load could theoretically be supplied from storage (air and water heating, water cooling, refrigeration, some transportation, and some industrial processes) or shifted in time (some transportation, some industrial processes). The percentages are then reduced to <100% to account for some on-demand energy (SI Appendix, Section S1.J).

  • § Obtained by multiplying column 2 by column 4 then subtracting column 6.

  • From ref. 22.