Table 1.

Hindcasts of 20th century GSL rise (centimeters)

ScenarioSummaryCalibrated to individual temperature reconstructions
Mann et al. (1)Marcott et al. (2)
50th percentile5th–95th percentile50th percentile5th–95th percentile50th percentile5th–95th percentile
Observed13.812.6–15.0
Historical13.07.7–17.514.311.5–17.511.67.7–16.3
Scenario 10.6−3.5–4.10.9−1.3–3.30.3−3.5–4.1
Scenario 24.0−0.9–7.55.53.3–7.52.4−0.9–5.9
Percent of historical
 Scenario 15−27–417−9–233−27–41
 Scenario 230−10–513924–5121−10–42
  • All values are with respect to year 1900 CE baseline. Summary results show means of medians, minima of lower bounds, and maxima of upper bounds taken across both temperature calibrations.