Table 1.

Increases in peak demand dwarf increases in average demand by end of century

%Δ average hourly load%Δ peak daily load%Δ 95th percentile daily peak load%Δ frequency days w. peak load > current 95th percentile%Δ frequency days w. peak load > current 99th percentile
Simulation typeIntensityIntensityIntensityFrequencyFrequency
RCP 4.5
FERC2.83.56.8158382
ERCOT3.74.36.2150460
ISONE1.627.1103260
NYISO2.73.38.5128312
PJM2.33.18133329
Total2.83.57152374
RCP 8.5
FERC89.717.24071, 532
ERCOT10.111.515.24061, 634
ISONE5617.72811, 024
NYISO89.221.23341, 230
PJM78.920.53541, 347
Total7.99.617.63951, 492
  • Column 1 is the projected percent change in hourly generation, column 2 is the projected percent change in daily peak load, column 3 is the projected percent change in the 95th percentile of daily peak load, and columns 4 and 5 are the projected percent change in the number of days with peak load greater than the present-day 95th and 99th percentiles, respectively. Each projection is based on the average projected change in temperature for 19 independent climate models. The five rows display results across five geographic regions of the United States.