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Research Article

Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza in the United States

Timothy C. Germann, Kai Kadau, Ira M. Longini Jr., and Catherine A. Macken
PNAS April 11, 2006 103 (15) 5935-5940; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0601266103
Timothy C. Germann
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  • For correspondence: tcg@lanl.gov
Kai Kadau
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Ira M. Longini Jr.
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Catherine A. Macken
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  1. Communicated by G. Balakrish Nair, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh, February 16, 2006 (received for review January 10, 2006)

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Article Information

vol. 103 no. 15 5935-5940
DOI: 
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0601266103
PubMed: 
16585506

Published By: 
National Academy of Sciences
Print ISSN: 
0027-8424
Online ISSN: 
1091-6490
History: 
  • Published in issue April 11, 2006.
  • Published first April 3, 2006.

Copyright & Usage: 
© 2006 by The National Academy of Sciences of the USA

Author Information

  1. Timothy C. Germann *,
  2. Kai Kadau *,
  3. Ira M. Longini, Jr. ‡ , and
  4. Catherine A. Macken *
  1. *Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545; and
  2. ‡Program of Biostatistics and Biomathematics, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center and Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98109
  1. Communicated by G. Balakrish Nair, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh, February 16, 2006 (received for review January 10, 2006)

Footnotes

  • †To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: tcg{at}lanl.gov
  • Author contributions: T.C.G., K.K., I.M.L., and C.A.M. designed research, performed research, contributed new reagents/analytic tools, analyzed data, and wrote the paper.

  • ↵ § In fact, efficacy of experimental vaccines against a novel pandemic strain cannot be ascertained in the absence of actual viral challenge; immunogenicity alone can be determined. Experimental vaccines based on avian influenza virus have required much greater amounts of antigen for acceptable levels of immunogenicity than standard human vaccines. This discrepancy does not enter into our calculations of required doses of vaccine. We assume that pandemic vaccines will have the same relationship between efficacy and immunogenicity as that for standard vaccines against human influenza virus.

  • ↵ ¶ R 0 is a difficult quantity to estimate during an actual epidemic, because it depends critically upon the disease serial interval (or generation time) and to a somewhat lesser extent on the relative durations of the latent and infectious periods (19, 20). Because our model assumes particular values for these quantities, R 0 is a useful measure of transmissibility, but care needs to be taken when comparing results for different models or epidemiological data.

  • Conflict of interest statement: No conflicts declared.

  • Abbreviations:

    Abbreviations:

    TAP,
    targeted antiviral prophylaxis;
    NAI,
    neuraminidase inhibitor.
  • © 2006 by The National Academy of Sciences of the USA

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Article usage

Article usage: April 2006 to January 2021

AbstractFullPdf
Apr 200649576001804
May 2006873307421
Jun 2006317180238
Jul 2006233104168
Aug 200626173137
Sep 2006244101115
Oct 2006248177213
Nov 2006234170210
Dec 2006136114133
Total 2006750318263439
Jan 2007200102144
Feb 2007198104128
Mar 2007213139144
Apr 2007185119221
May 2007136113158
Jun 200712584107
Jul 20071156080
Aug 20071176884
Sep 20071025671
Oct 200714590101
Nov 200714688108
Dec 2007963648
Total 2007177810591394
Jan 20081075564
Feb 20081468695
Mar 200821068108
Apr 200814856100
May 20081344980
Jun 20081236094
Jul 20081663259
Aug 20081504356
Sep 20081686180
Oct 20081743786
Nov 20082116483
Dec 20081372963
Total 20081874640968
Jan 20091693984
Feb 20092165579
Mar 20091424761
Apr 2009306119173
May 2009317159201
Jun 200922762108
Jul 200924768140
Aug 200926558114
Sep 200929247119
Oct 2009151151149
Nov 200915015189
Dec 20091167758
Total 2009259810331375
Jan 20108513571
Feb 20107613573
Mar 201011511067
Apr 20101293546
May 20101074848
Jun 20101606454
Jul 20101094450
Aug 20101303239
Sep 20101325446
Oct 20101285150
Nov 20101584956
Dec 2010963836
Total 20101425795636
Jan 20111083934
Feb 20111184044
Mar 20111272739
Apr 20111275449
May 20111293760
Jun 20111082431
Jul 20111053460
Aug 20111076739
Sep 20111086456
Oct 201113810957
Nov 20111057947
Dec 2011806239
Total 20111360636555
Jan 2012734924
Feb 201211320570
Mar 2012116163071
Apr 20123478654
May 2012180299871
Jun 20126951423452
Jul 201231537256112
Aug 2012479553116
Sep 201223144650
Oct 20126442835
Nov 20121584094
Dec 20121423246
Total 20121273026657795
Jan 20131102341
Feb 20131383649
Mar 20131725059
Apr 20132496757
May 20131662641
Jun 20131102630
Jul 20131161938
Aug 20131332930
Sep 20131434132
Oct 20131234244
Nov 2013992825
Dec 20131077932
Total 20131666466478
Jan 2014805032
Feb 20141146140
Mar 20141088025
Apr 20141587332
May 20141836931
Jun 20141003734
Jul 20144406642
Aug 20141088228
Sep 2014996725
Oct 201443512455
Nov 20142399755
Dec 20141413731
Total 20142205843430
Jan 20152704434
Feb 20152875541
Mar 20152376740
Apr 20151817142
May 20151895346
Jun 20151294646
Jul 2015794636
Aug 2015875235
Sep 20151484441
Oct 20151695154
Nov 20151583550
Dec 20151653940
Total 20152099603505
Jan 20161487547
Feb 20161975956
Mar 20161557449
Apr 20161466046
May 20161523459
Jun 20161262648
Jul 20161212436
Aug 20161042530
Sep 20162812649
Oct 20162194142
Nov 20161693846
Dec 20161702448
Total 20161988506556
Jan 20171452947
Feb 20171524639
Mar 20171834338
Apr 20171584642
May 20171356055
Jun 20171192038
Jul 2017992628
Aug 20171063739
Sep 20171265142
Oct 20171057037
Nov 2017996953
Dec 2017885344
Total 20171515550502
Jan 20181189749
Feb 201815510146
Mar 201817211961
Apr 20181217847
May 201813410039
Jun 20181258331
Jul 20181308421
Aug 20181136840
Sep 20181115833
Oct 2018789972
Nov 20188911656
Dec 2018439161
Total 201813891094556
Jan 20195213351
Feb 2019699054
Mar 20198912048
Apr 20195810253
May 2019398846
Jun 2019386535
Jul 2019478246
Aug 2019328940
Sep 2019395829
Oct 2019297327
Nov 2019356333
Dec 2019188428
Total 20195451047490
Jan 202060714279
Feb 2020490911145
Mar 202075814991187
Apr 2020441882555
May 2020241639243
Jun 2020150405141
Jul 202086275123
Aug 202010021598
Sep 202084338114
Oct 2020118301123
Nov 202012830795
Dec 2020171297116
Total 2020337462113019
Jan 20216715977
Total 20216715977
Total441164412515775
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Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza in the United States
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Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza in the United States
Timothy C. Germann, Kai Kadau, Ira M. Longini, Catherine A. Macken
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Apr 2006, 103 (15) 5935-5940; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0601266103

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Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza in the United States
Timothy C. Germann, Kai Kadau, Ira M. Longini, Catherine A. Macken
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Apr 2006, 103 (15) 5935-5940; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0601266103
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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences: 103 (15)
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