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Edited by Ronald W. Jones, University of Rochester, Rochester, NY, and approved June 15, 2007 (received for review December 27, 2006)
Abstract
The rise of 401(k) plans and the decline of defined benefit plans will have an important effect on the wealth of future retirees. Changing demographic structure also will affect the aggregate stock of retirement wealth. We project the stock of assets held in retirement plans and the average retirement saving of retirees through 2040. Our projections show large increases in wealth at retirement, especially if the returns on corporate equities are comparable with historical returns. Retirement wealth will grow, however, even if equity returns fall substantially below their historical level.
Footnotes
- ¶To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: dwise{at}nber.org
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Author contributions: J.P., S.V., and D.A.W. designed research, performed research, and wrote the paper.
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The authors declare no conflict of interest.
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This article is a PNAS Direct Submission.
- Abbreviations:
- DB,
- defined benefit;
- GDP,
- gross domestic product;
- HRS,
- Health and Retirement Study;
- SIPP,
- Survey of Income and Program Participation;
- SSA,
- Social Security Administration.
- © 2007 by The National Academy of Sciences of the USA
The shift from defined benefit pensions to 401(k) plans and the pension assets of the baby boom cohort
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