Skip to main content

Main menu

  • Home
  • Articles
    • Current
    • Special Feature Articles - Most Recent
    • Special Features
    • Colloquia
    • Collected Articles
    • PNAS Classics
    • List of Issues
  • Front Matter
    • Front Matter Portal
    • Journal Club
  • News
    • For the Press
    • This Week In PNAS
    • PNAS in the News
  • Podcasts
  • Authors
    • Information for Authors
    • Editorial and Journal Policies
    • Submission Procedures
    • Fees and Licenses
  • Submit
  • Submit
  • About
    • Editorial Board
    • PNAS Staff
    • FAQ
    • Accessibility Statement
    • Rights and Permissions
    • Site Map
  • Contact
  • Journal Club
  • Subscribe
    • Subscription Rates
    • Subscriptions FAQ
    • Open Access
    • Recommend PNAS to Your Librarian

User menu

  • Log in
  • My Cart

Search

  • Advanced search
Home
Home
  • Log in
  • My Cart

Advanced Search

  • Home
  • Articles
    • Current
    • Special Feature Articles - Most Recent
    • Special Features
    • Colloquia
    • Collected Articles
    • PNAS Classics
    • List of Issues
  • Front Matter
    • Front Matter Portal
    • Journal Club
  • News
    • For the Press
    • This Week In PNAS
    • PNAS in the News
  • Podcasts
  • Authors
    • Information for Authors
    • Editorial and Journal Policies
    • Submission Procedures
    • Fees and Licenses
  • Submit
Research Article

Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two millennia

Michael E. Mann, Zhihua Zhang, Malcolm K. Hughes, Raymond S. Bradley, Sonya K. Miller, Scott Rutherford, and Fenbiao Ni
  1. *Department of Meteorology and Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802;
  2. ‡Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721;
  3. §Department of Geosciences, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003-9298; and
  4. ¶Department of Environmental Science, Roger Williams University, Bristol, RI 02809

See allHide authors and affiliations

PNAS September 9, 2008 105 (36) 13252-13257; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0805721105
Michael E. Mann
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
  • For correspondence: mann@psu.edu
Zhihua Zhang
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Malcolm K. Hughes
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Raymond S. Bradley
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Sonya K. Miller
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Scott Rutherford
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Fenbiao Ni
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
  1. Communicated by Lonnie G. Thompson, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, June 26, 2008 (received for review November 20, 2007)

  • Article
  • Figures & SI
  • Info & Metrics
  • PDF
Loading

Article Figures & SI

Figures

  • Fig. 1.
    • Download figure
    • Open in new tab
    • Download powerpoint
    Fig. 1.

    Spatial distribution of proxy database (see SI Text for distribution of screened network and other details). Nine different proxy types are denoted with different symbols as shown in the map. Beginning dates of proxy records are represented by color scale.

  • Fig. 2.
    • Download figure
    • Open in new tab
    • Download powerpoint
    Fig. 2.

    Comparison of CPS: hemisphere screened (A); “no dendro” (B); and EIV full global (C) and “no dendro” (D). NH reconstructions (colored curves; 95% confidence intervals shown by lightly shaded regions of similar color) with decadally smoothed CRU NH land mean series (thick black curve). Reconstructions are shown over late (A.D. 1950–1995) and early (A.D. 1850–1895) validation intervals corresponding to early (A.D. 1850–1949) and late (1896–1995) calibration experiments respectively. RE validation scores are shown (Insets) as a function of the starting date of the network along with 90% and 95% significance levels based on Monte Carlo experiments. Only reconstructions that passed validation are shown. Color bar indicates network starting dates.

  • Fig. 3.
    • Download figure
    • Open in new tab
    • Download powerpoint
    Fig. 3.

    Composite CPS and EIV NH land and land plus ocean temperature reconstructions and estimated 95% confidence intervals. Shown for comparison are published NH reconstructions, centered to have the same mean as the overlapping segment of the CRU instrumental NH land surface temperature record 1850–2006 that, with the exception of the borehole-based reconstructions, have been scaled to have the same decadal variance as the CRU series during the overlap interval (alternative scaling approaches for attempting to match the amplitude of signal in the reconstructed and instrumental series are examined in SI Text). All series have been smoothed with a 40-year low-pass filter as in ref 33. Confidence intervals have been reduced to account for smoothing.

Data supplements

  • Supporting Information

    Files in this Data Supplement:

    • Download Supporting Information (PDF)
    • Download Dataset 1 (XLS)
    • Download Dataset 2 (XLS)
    • Download Dataset 3 (XLS)
    • Download Dataset 4 (XLS)
PreviousNext
Back to top
Article Alerts
Email Article

Thank you for your interest in spreading the word on PNAS.

NOTE: We only request your email address so that the person you are recommending the page to knows that you wanted them to see it, and that it is not junk mail. We do not capture any email address.

Enter multiple addresses on separate lines or separate them with commas.
Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two millennia
(Your Name) has sent you a message from PNAS
(Your Name) thought you would like to see the PNAS web site.
CAPTCHA
This question is for testing whether or not you are a human visitor and to prevent automated spam submissions.
Citation Tools
Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two millennia
Michael E. Mann, Zhihua Zhang, Malcolm K. Hughes, Raymond S. Bradley, Sonya K. Miller, Scott Rutherford, Fenbiao Ni
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Sep 2008, 105 (36) 13252-13257; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0805721105

Citation Manager Formats

  • BibTeX
  • Bookends
  • EasyBib
  • EndNote (tagged)
  • EndNote 8 (xml)
  • Medlars
  • Mendeley
  • Papers
  • RefWorks Tagged
  • Ref Manager
  • RIS
  • Zotero
Request Permissions
Share
Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two millennia
Michael E. Mann, Zhihua Zhang, Malcolm K. Hughes, Raymond S. Bradley, Sonya K. Miller, Scott Rutherford, Fenbiao Ni
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Sep 2008, 105 (36) 13252-13257; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0805721105
del.icio.us logo Digg logo Reddit logo Twitter logo CiteULike logo Facebook logo Google logo Mendeley logo
  • Tweet Widget
  • Facebook Like
  • Mendeley logo Mendeley

Article Classifications

  • Physical Sciences
  • Environmental Sciences

Related Article

  • In This Issue
    - Sep 09, 2008
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences: 105 (36)
Table of Contents

Submit

Sign up for Article Alerts

Jump to section

  • Article
    • Abstract
    • Data
    • Results
    • Conclusions
    • Methods
    • Acknowledgments
    • Footnotes
    • References
  • Figures & SI
  • Info & Metrics
  • PDF

You May Also be Interested in

Water from a faucet fills a glass.
News Feature: How “forever chemicals” might impair the immune system
Researchers are exploring whether these ubiquitous fluorinated molecules might worsen infections or hamper vaccine effectiveness.
Image credit: Shutterstock/Dmitry Naumov.
Reflection of clouds in the still waters of Mono Lake in California.
Inner Workings: Making headway with the mysteries of life’s origins
Recent experiments and simulations are starting to answer some fundamental questions about how life came to be.
Image credit: Shutterstock/Radoslaw Lecyk.
Cave in coastal Kenya with tree growing in the middle.
Journal Club: Small, sharp blades mark shift from Middle to Later Stone Age in coastal Kenya
Archaeologists have long tried to define the transition between the two time periods.
Image credit: Ceri Shipton.
Illustration of groups of people chatting
Exploring the length of human conversations
Adam Mastroianni and Daniel Gilbert explore why conversations almost never end when people want them to.
Listen
Past PodcastsSubscribe
Panda bear hanging in a tree
How horse manure helps giant pandas tolerate cold
A study finds that giant pandas roll in horse manure to increase their cold tolerance.
Image credit: Fuwen Wei.

Similar Articles

Site Logo
Powered by HighWire
  • Submit Manuscript
  • Twitter
  • Facebook
  • RSS Feeds
  • Email Alerts

Articles

  • Current Issue
  • Special Feature Articles – Most Recent
  • List of Issues

PNAS Portals

  • Anthropology
  • Chemistry
  • Classics
  • Front Matter
  • Physics
  • Sustainability Science
  • Teaching Resources

Information

  • Authors
  • Editorial Board
  • Reviewers
  • Subscribers
  • Librarians
  • Press
  • Cozzarelli Prize
  • Site Map
  • PNAS Updates
  • FAQs
  • Accessibility Statement
  • Rights & Permissions
  • About
  • Contact

Feedback    Privacy/Legal

Copyright © 2021 National Academy of Sciences. Online ISSN 1091-6490