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Edited by Stephen R. Carpenter, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI, and approved July 16, 2008 (received for review March 11, 2008)
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Figures
- Fig. 1.
Eight reconstructed time series of abrupt climate shifts in the past. (A) The end of the greenhouse Earth, (M) the end of the Younger Dryas, (K) the Bølling-Alleröd transition, (O) the desertification of North Africa, (I) the end of the last glaciation, and (G, E, and F) the ends of earlier glaciations. In all cases the dynamics of the system slow down before the transition, as revealed by an increasing trend in autocorrelation (B, D, F, H, J, L, N, and P). The gray bands identify transition phases. The arrows mark the width of the moving window used to compute slowness. The smooth gray line through the time series is the Gaussian kernel function used to filter out slow trends. Data in A come from tropical Pacific sediment core records, data in M are from the Cariaco basin sediment, data in K come from the Greenland GISP2 ice core, data in O from the sediment core ODP Hole 658C off the west coast of Africa, and data presented in C, E, G, and I are from the Antarctica Vostok ice core (additional details are in supporting information (SI) Table S1 and Fig. S1).
- Fig. 2.
Three simulated abrupt climate transitions. Transition to an icehouse Earth (A), collapse of the thermo-haline circulation (C), and desertification of North Africa (E) (see SI Text for details on simulations). As in the reconstructed real dynamics, the transition is preceded by slowing down as revealed by increased autocorrelation (B, D, and F). The gray bands identify the transition phases. The arrows mark the width of the sliding window used to compute slowness. The smooth gray line through the time series is the Gaussian kernel function used to filter out slow trends. All models pass a fold bifurcation F as a control parameter is slowly changing (relative radiation, freshwater forcing, and insolation, respectively). In the case of the ocean circulation and desertification model (C and E), there are also alternative attractors present implying hysteresis (dashed line), if the change in the control variable would be reversed on the shift. Points F1 and F2 are saddle-node bifurcation points.
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Slowing down as an early warning signal for abrupt climate change
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