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Edited by Peter Gleick, Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment, and Security, Oakland, CA, and approved March 6, 2009 (received for review December 15, 2008)
Article Figures & SI
Figures
- Fig. 1.
Model simulations of total active storage in Lakes Mead and Powell for the CRBM model used here (black circles) and the full USBR Colorado River model (red crosses). The 2 inflow sequences and USBR model results (A, after figure N-8; B, after figure N-10) are taken from ref. 16, appendix N, figures 7–10 with elevations converted to total active storage.
- Fig. 2.
Probability of experiencing delivery shortages (blue, %), and the mean delivery shortage (red, bcm/yr), for the cases with no climate change (A) and a reduction in Colorado River runoff of 10% (B) and 20% (C). Also shown for comparison is the largest lower-basin delivery cut included in the USBR's preferred alternative of reservoir operations, 0.74 bcm/yr, or 0.6 maf/yr (dashed line).
- Fig. 3.
Probability of delivering <14.5 bcm (11.75 maf) of water in the indicated year (A) and probability of the reservoirs being at least 80% full (B). Lines show cases with no anthropogenic climate change and with reductions in runoff of 10% and 20% driven by anthropogenic climate change.
- Fig. 4.
Mean water deliveries from the Colorado River system under various climate scenarios. Line D shows the mean water delivered across all model realizations and can be thought of as the upper limit of sustainable water deliveries. Line B10% shows mean water delivered during years that fall within the bottom 10% of deliveries. For comparison, line R shows requests for scheduled deliveries. (A–C) Computations with 20th-century values of Colorado River flow. (D–F) Computations using an assumed Colorado River flow of 17.38 bcm/yr (14.08 maf/yr) at Lees Ferry, AZ, the mean of estimates from 10 different tree-ring reconstructions. Wherever the D line drops below the R line (shaded regions), requests for water are exceeding sustainable deliveries.
- Fig. 5.
Historical and Paleoclimate estimates of Colorado River flow. (A) Vertical line shows observed (naturalized) mean flow in the Colorado River at Lees Ferry, AZ from 1906–2005 compared with a histogram of the mean flow in all sliding 100-yr segments from a tree-ring-based reconstruction of Colorado River flow (21). (B) Time series of naturalized mean annual flow in the Colorado River at Lees Ferry, AZ, along with the 5-year running mean (heavy line) and mean over the period 1906–2005 (18.6 bcm/yr or 15.07 maf/yr) (dashed line).
Tables
- Table 1.
Estimates of future decrease in runoff in the Colorado River basin due to human-induced climate change
Source Runoff reduction Nash and Gleick (1991) 12–31%† Nash and Gleick (1993) 8–20% Christensen et al. (2004) 18% Milly et al. (2005) 10–25% Seager et al. (2007) 15–20% Christensen and Lettenmaier (2007) 6–7% Hoerling and Eischeid (2007) 45%‡ McCabe and Wolock (2007) 8–17%
Data supplements
Supporting Information
Files in this Data Supplement:
Sustainable water deliveries from the Colorado River in a changing climate
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