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The future of ice sheets and sea ice: Between reversible retreat and unstoppable loss

Dirk Notz
PNAS December 8, 2009 106 (49) 20590-20595; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0902356106
Dirk Notz
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  • For correspondence: dirk.notz@zmaw.de
  1. Edited by Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Environmental Change Institute, Oxford, United Kingdom, and approved September 22, 2009 (received for review March 3, 2009)

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Abstract

We discuss the existence of cryospheric “tipping points” in the Earth's climate system. Such critical thresholds have been suggested to exist for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice and the retreat of ice sheets: Once these ice masses have shrunk below an anticipated critical extent, the ice–albedo feedback might lead to the irreversible and unstoppable loss of the remaining ice. We here give an overview of our current understanding of such threshold behavior. By using conceptual arguments, we review the recent findings that such a tipping point probably does not exist for the loss of Arctic summer sea ice. Hence, in a cooler climate, sea ice could recover rapidly from the loss it has experienced in recent years. In addition, we discuss why this recent rapid retreat of Arctic summer sea ice might largely be a consequence of a slow shift in ice-thickness distribution, which will lead to strongly increased year-to-year variability of the Arctic summer sea-ice extent. This variability will render seasonal forecasts of the Arctic summer sea-ice extent increasingly difficult. We also discuss why, in contrast to Arctic summer sea ice, a tipping point is more likely to exist for the loss of the Greenland ice sheet and the West Antarctic ice sheet.

  • Greenland
  • West Antarctic
  • climate change
  • tipping point
  • Arctic

Footnotes

  • 1E-mail:dirk.notz{at}zmaw.de
  • Author contributions: D.N. designed research, performed research, analyzed data, and wrote the paper.

  • The author declares no conflict of interest.

  • This article is a PNAS Direct Submission.

  • Received March 3, 2009.
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The future of ice sheets and sea ice: Between reversible retreat and unstoppable loss
Dirk Notz
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Dec 2009, 106 (49) 20590-20595; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0902356106

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The future of ice sheets and sea ice: Between reversible retreat and unstoppable loss
Dirk Notz
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Dec 2009, 106 (49) 20590-20595; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0902356106
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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences: 106 (49)
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  • Article
    • Abstract
    • The Ice–Albedo Feedback
    • The Small Ice-Cap Instability
    • Arctic Sea Ice
    • Antarctic Sea Ice
    • Greenland and WAIS
    • Conclusion and Summary
    • Acknowledgments
    • Footnotes
    • References
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