Global sea level linked to global temperature

Martin Vermeer; Stefan Rahmstorf

doi:10.1073/pnas.0907765106

Edited by William C. Clark, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, and approved October 26, 2009 (received for review July 15, 2009)

Abstract

We propose a simple relationship linking global sea-level variations on time scales of decades to centuries to global mean temperature. This relationship is tested on synthetic data from a global climate model for the past millennium and the next century. When applied to observed data of sea level and temperature for 1880–2000, and taking into account known anthropogenic hydrologic contributions to sea level, the correlation is >0.99, explaining 98% of the variance. For future global temperature scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fourth Assessment Report, the relationship projects a sea-level rise ranging from 75 to 190 cm for the period 1990–2100.

Footnotes

¹To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: martin.vermeer{at}tkk.fi
Author contributions: M.V. and S.R. designed research; M.V. and S.R. performed research; M.V. and S.R. analyzed data; and S.R. wrote the paper.
The authors declare no conflict of interest.
This article is a PNAS Direct Submission.
See Commentary on page 21461.
This article contains supporting information online at www.pnas.org/cgi/content/full/0907765106/DCSupplemental.