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Letter

Reply to Taboada and Anadón: Critique of sea-level rise study invalid

Martin Vermeer and Stefan Rahmstorf
  1. aDepartment of Surveying, Faculty of Engineering Sciences and Architecture, Aalto University School of Science and Technology, FI-00076 Aalto, Finland; and
  2. bDepartment of Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany

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PNAS July 20, 2010 107 (29) E118; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1006678107
Martin Vermeer
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  • For correspondence: martin.vermeer@tkk.fi
Stefan Rahmstorf
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In their letter, Taboada and Anadón (1) use an integral form of the sea-level formula that we have proposed (2), obtained simply by integrating our equation over time (Eq. 1):Embedded ImageBecause Eq. 1 is equivalent to our equation, these authors, not surprisingly, obtain the same result as we do, with parameter values differing only insignificantly from ours as we verified using (Eq. 2)

Embedded Image

and t120 − t0 = 120 years (Table 1).

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Table 1.

Parameters of fit computed by the methods of ref. 1 and ref. 2, respectively.

However, the authors' discussion of the parameter fit relating to their figures 1 and 2 is simply wrong (1). In figure 1, they show a regression of sea level H vs. the integral over temperature T only—relative to an arbitrary reference level, which is the mean over 1951–1980—when the equation contains the integral over the difference (T − T0); i.e., the second term in our Eq. (1) above. It is only the latter expression, with T0 designating preindustrial equilibrium sea level, that is nonarbitrary and makes physical sense.

Regressing the full sea-level H against T in figure 2 is similarly wrong (1). In Eq. 1, the b coefficient indeed expresses a proportionality between temperature and sea level, but in figure 2, this dependence is drowned out by the much larger contribution of the terms in a, which our equation models as a dependence between temperature and the rate of sea-level rise (dH/dt).

Only the sum of contributions as modeled by our equation correlates well with sea level; partial regressions like this do not work. Hence, neither of the graphs presented makes sense.

Footnotes

  • 1To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: martin.vermeer{at}tkk.fi.
  • Author contributions: M.V. and S.R. wrote the paper.

  • The authors declare no conflict of interest.

    References

    1. ↵
      1. Taboada FG,
      2. Anadón R
      (2010) Critique of the methods used to project global sea-level rise from global temperature. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 107:E116–E117.
      OpenUrlFREE Full Text
    2. ↵
      1. Vermeer M,
      2. Rahmstorf S
      (2009) Global sea level linked to global temperature. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 106:21527–21532.
      OpenUrlAbstract/FREE Full Text
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    Reply to Taboada and Anadón: Critique of sea-level rise study invalid
    Martin Vermeer, Stefan Rahmstorf
    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Jul 2010, 107 (29) E118; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1006678107

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    Reply to Taboada and Anadón: Critique of sea-level rise study invalid
    Martin Vermeer, Stefan Rahmstorf
    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Jul 2010, 107 (29) E118; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1006678107
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