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Research Article

Climate not to blame for African civil wars

Halvard Buhaug
PNAS September 21, 2010 107 (38) 16477-16482; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1005739107
Halvard Buhaug
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  • For correspondence: halvardb@prio.no
  1. Edited by B. L. Turner, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, and approved August 10, 2010 (received for review April 30, 2010)

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Abstract

Vocal actors within policy and practice contend that environmental variability and shocks, such as drought and prolonged heat waves, drive civil wars in Africa. Recently, a widely publicized scientific article appears to substantiate this claim. This paper investigates the empirical foundation for the claimed relationship in detail. Using a host of different model specifications and alternative measures of drought, heat, and civil war, the paper concludes that climate variability is a poor predictor of armed conflict. Instead, African civil wars can be explained by generic structural and contextual conditions: prevalent ethno-political exclusion, poor national economy, and the collapse of the Cold War system.

  • Africa
  • climate change
  • conflict
  • security

Footnotes

  • 1E-mail: halvardb{at}prio.no.
  • Author contributions: H.B. designed research, performed research, analyzed data, and wrote the paper.

  • The author declares no conflict of interest.

  • This article is a PNAS Direct Submission.

  • Data deposition: Replication data are available from PRIO's data repository at http://www.prio.no/CSCW/Datasets/.

    Freely available online through the PNAS open access option.

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    Climate not to blame for African civil wars
    Halvard Buhaug
    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Sep 2010, 107 (38) 16477-16482; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1005739107

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    Climate not to blame for African civil wars
    Halvard Buhaug
    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Sep 2010, 107 (38) 16477-16482; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1005739107
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    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences: 107 (38)
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