Estimating least-developed countries’ vulnerability to climate-related extreme events over the next 50 years

Anthony G. Patt; Mark Tadross; Patrick Nussbaumer; Kwabena Asante; Marc Metzger; Jose Rafael; Anne Goujon; Geoff Brundrit

doi:10.1073/pnas.0910253107

New Research In

Edited by Stephen H. Schneider, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, and approved December 4, 2009 (received for review September 10, 2009)

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Fig. 1.
Relationship between risk and HDI for (A) the number of people affected, i.e., needing emergency or recovery assistance, by a flood, drought, or cyclone, per million of population, and (B) the number of people killed. Each dot represents a country in the CRED database during the period 1990–2007, with its position on the vertical scale being the logarithm of the annual value per million population, after subtracting the predicted influence of other risk factors. Regression line in each figure shows predicted values including the influence of HDI.
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Fig. 2.
Projected Human Development Index (HDI) levels for Mozambique consistent with the IPCC A2 and B1 scenario storylines, compared with historical data for neighboring countries. The B1 scenario translates into higher values for each of the three component parts of HDI (life expectancy at birth, education and literacy, and per capita gross domestic product) compared with the A2 scenario.
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Fig. 3.
Mozambique risk scenarios to 2060. (A) Expected numbers of people affected, i.e., needing emergency or recovery assistance, by floods, droughts, and cyclones in Mozambique. (B) Expected number of people killed.
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Fig. 4.
Comparison of Mozambique results with averages from a sample of 23 least developed countries (LCDs). All scenarios assume a linear continuation of disaster frequencies observed over the period 1970–2008. Sample of 23 LCDs comprises Bangladesh, Burkina Faso, Cape Verde Islands, Central African Republic, Comoros Islands, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Gambia, Haiti, Laos, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Mozambique, Nepal, Niger, Senegal, Solomon Islands, Tanzania, Vanatu, and Zambia.

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Table 1.

Ordinary least-squares regression results

Independent variables	Killed	Affected
Number of disasters	1.36^* (0.15)	1.88^* (0.19)
National population	−0.56^* (0.09)	−0.79^* (0.11)
HDI	−5.97^* (1.95)	−13.55^* (2.16)
HDI²	−6.26^* (1.52)	−9.82^* (1.86)
Female fertility	1.45^* (0.43)
Proportion urban population		−0.41 (0.37)
Constant	−3.86^* (0.49)	5.33^* (1.71)
Number of observations	150	154
R²	0.52	0.55

The dependent variable in the Killed model is the logged value of the number of people reported by CRED as killed by the three types of disasters considered (droughts, floods, and storms) divided by population. The dependent variable in the Affected model is the same for the number of people reported affected, but not killed, by the same disasters. All independent variables are logged values. Because HDI occupies the range of 0–1, all logged HDI values were negative, whereas the squares of these values were positive.
↵*Values significant (two-tailed student’s t test) at the 99% confidence level. Values in parentheses are SEs.