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Edited by John Bongaarts, Population Council, New York, NY, and approved August 27, 2010 (received for review April 6, 2010)
↵2A substantial portion of this work was carried out while the author was at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA).
Abstract
Substantial changes in population size, age structure, and urbanization are expected in many parts of the world this century. Although such changes can affect energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, emissions scenario analyses have either left them out or treated them in a fragmentary or overly simplified manner. We carry out a comprehensive assessment of the implications of demographic change for global emissions of carbon dioxide. Using an energy–economic growth model that accounts for a range of demographic dynamics, we show that slowing population growth could provide 16–29% of the emissions reductions suggested to be necessary by 2050 to avoid dangerous climate change. We also find that aging and urbanization can substantially influence emissions in particular world regions.
Footnotes
- 1To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: boneill{at}ucar.edu.
Author contributions: B.C.O., M.D., R.F., L.J., S.P., and K.Z. designed research, performed research, analyzed data, and wrote the paper.
The authors declare no conflict of interest.
This article is a PNAS Direct Submission.
This article contains supporting information online at www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.1004581107/-/DCSupplemental.
Freely available online through the PNAS open access option.
Global demographic trends and future carbon emissions
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