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Research Article

Continent-wide risk assessment for the establishment of nonindigenous species in Antarctica

Steven L. Chown, Ad H. L. Huiskes, Niek J. M. Gremmen, Jennifer E. Lee, Aleks Terauds, Kim Crosbie, Yves Frenot, Kevin A. Hughes, Satoshi Imura, Kate Kiefer, Marc Lebouvier, Ben Raymond, Megumu Tsujimoto, Chris Ware, Bart Van de Vijver, and Dana Michelle Bergstrom
  1. aCentre for Invasion Biology, Department of Botany and Zoology, Stellenbosch University, Matieland 7602, South Africa;
  2. bNetherlands Institute of Ecology, 4400 AC, Yerseke, The Netherlands;
  3. cAustralian Antarctic Division, Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities, Kingston 7050, Australia;
  4. dInternational Association of Antarctica Tour Operators, Providence, RI 02906;
  5. eFrench Polar Institute Paul Emile Victor, 29280 Plouzané, France;
  6. fBritish Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, High Cross, Cambridge CB3 0ET, United Kingdom;
  7. gNational Institute of Polar Research, Tokyo 190-8518, Japan;
  8. hStation Biologique, Unité Mixte de Recherche Ecobio Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique–Université de Rennes 1, 35380 Paimpont, France;
  9. iGraduate University for Advanced Studies, Tachikawa, Tokyo 190-8518, Japan;
  10. jJapan Society for the Promotion of Science, Tokyo 102-8472, Japan; and
  11. kNational Botanic Garden of Belgium, Domein van Bouchout, B-1860 Meise, Belgium

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PNAS March 27, 2012 109 (13) 4938-4943; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1119787109
Steven L. Chown
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  • For correspondence: slchown@sun.ac.za
Ad H. L. Huiskes
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Niek J. M. Gremmen
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Jennifer E. Lee
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Aleks Terauds
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Kim Crosbie
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Yves Frenot
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Kevin A. Hughes
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Satoshi Imura
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Kate Kiefer
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Marc Lebouvier
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Ben Raymond
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Megumu Tsujimoto
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Chris Ware
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Bart Van de Vijver
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Dana Michelle Bergstrom
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  1. Edited by Peter M. Vitousek, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, and approved January 30, 2012 (received for review December 1, 2011)

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Abstract

Invasive alien species are among the primary causes of biodiversity change globally, with the risks thereof broadly understood for most regions of the world. They are similarly thought to be among the most significant conservation threats to Antarctica, especially as climate change proceeds in the region. However, no comprehensive, continent-wide evaluation of the risks to Antarctica posed by such species has been undertaken. Here we do so by sampling, identifying, and mapping the vascular plant propagules carried by all categories of visitors to Antarctica during the International Polar Year's first season (2007–2008) and assessing propagule establishment likelihood based on their identity and origins and on spatial variation in Antarctica's climate. For an evaluation of the situation in 2100, we use modeled climates based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Scenario A1B [Nakićenović N, Swart R, eds (2000) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK)]. Visitors carrying seeds average 9.5 seeds per person, although as vectors, scientists carry greater propagule loads than tourists. Annual tourist numbers (∼33,054) are higher than those of scientists (∼7,085), thus tempering these differences in propagule load. Alien species establishment is currently most likely for the Western Antarctic Peninsula. Recent founder populations of several alien species in this area corroborate these findings. With climate change, risks will grow in the Antarctic Peninsula, Ross Sea, and East Antarctic coastal regions. Our evidence-based assessment demonstrates which parts of Antarctica are at growing risk from alien species that may become invasive and provides the means to mitigate this threat now and into the future as the continent's climate changes.

  • biological invasions
  • biosecurity
  • mitigation
  • propagule pressure
  • unintentional introductions

Footnotes

  • ↵1To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: slchown{at}sun.ac.za.
  • Author contributions: S.L.C., A.H.L.H., N.J.M.G., J.E.L., Y.F., K.A.H., S.I., M.L., and D.M.B. designed research; S.L.C., A.H.L.H., N.J.M.G., J.E.L., K.C., Y.F., K.A.H., S.I., K.K., M.L., M.T., C.W., B.V.d.V., and D.M.B. performed research; S.L.C., N.J.M.G., A.T., and B.R. analyzed data; and S.L.C., A.H.L.H., N.J.M.G., J.E.L., A.T., K.C., Y.F., K.A.H., S.I., K.K., M.L., B.R., M.T., C.W., B.V.d.V., and D.M.B. wrote the paper.

  • The authors declare no conflict of interest.

  • This article is a PNAS Direct Submission.

  • Data deposition: The seed data reported in this paper have been deposited in the Antarctic Biodiversity database, Australian Antarctic Division, http://data.aad.gov.au/aadc/biodiversity/.

  • This article contains supporting information online at www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.1119787109/-/DCSupplemental.

Freely available online through the PNAS open access option.

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Alien species establishment in Antarctica
Steven L. Chown, Ad H. L. Huiskes, Niek J. M. Gremmen, Jennifer E. Lee, Aleks Terauds, Kim Crosbie, Yves Frenot, Kevin A. Hughes, Satoshi Imura, Kate Kiefer, Marc Lebouvier, Ben Raymond, Megumu Tsujimoto, Chris Ware, Bart Van de Vijver, Dana Michelle Bergstrom
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Mar 2012, 109 (13) 4938-4943; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1119787109

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Alien species establishment in Antarctica
Steven L. Chown, Ad H. L. Huiskes, Niek J. M. Gremmen, Jennifer E. Lee, Aleks Terauds, Kim Crosbie, Yves Frenot, Kevin A. Hughes, Satoshi Imura, Kate Kiefer, Marc Lebouvier, Ben Raymond, Megumu Tsujimoto, Chris Ware, Bart Van de Vijver, Dana Michelle Bergstrom
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Mar 2012, 109 (13) 4938-4943; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1119787109
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