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Research Article

Developed and developing world responsibilities for historical climate change and CO2 mitigation

Ting Wei, Shili Yang, John C. Moore, Peijun Shi, Xuefeng Cui, Qingyun Duan, Bing Xu, Yongjiu Dai, Wenping Yuan, Xin Wei, Zhipeng Yang, Tijian Wen, Fei Teng, Yun Gao, Jieming Chou, Xiaodong Yan, Zhigang Wei, Yan Guo, Yundi Jiang, Xuejie Gao, Kaicun Wang, Xiaogu Zheng, Fumin Ren, Shihua Lv, Yongqiang Yu, Bin Liu, Yong Luo, Weijing Li, Duoying Ji, Jinming Feng, Qizhong Wu, Huaqiong Cheng, Jiankun He, Congbin Fu, Duzheng Ye, Guanhua Xu, and Wenjie Dong
  1. aState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875/Zhuhai 519087, China;
  2. bArctic Centre, University of Lapland, PL122, 96100 Rovaniemi, Finland;
  3. cDepartment of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Villavägen 16, Uppsala SE-75236, Sweden;
  4. dDepartment of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;
  5. eEnergy, Environment, and Economy (3E) Research Institute, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;
  6. fClimate Change Division, Department of Science and Technology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China;
  7. gNational Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China;
  8. hCold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China;
  9. iInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China;
  10. jCenter for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; and
  11. kLaboratory for Climate Studies, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China

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PNAS August 7, 2012 109 (32) 12911-12915; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1203282109
Ting Wei
aState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875/Zhuhai 519087, China;
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Shili Yang
aState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875/Zhuhai 519087, China;
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John C. Moore
aState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875/Zhuhai 519087, China;
bArctic Centre, University of Lapland, PL122, 96100 Rovaniemi, Finland;
cDepartment of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Villavägen 16, Uppsala SE-75236, Sweden;
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Peijun Shi
aState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875/Zhuhai 519087, China;
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Xuefeng Cui
aState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875/Zhuhai 519087, China;
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Qingyun Duan
aState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875/Zhuhai 519087, China;
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Bing Xu
aState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875/Zhuhai 519087, China;
dDepartment of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;
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Yongjiu Dai
aState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875/Zhuhai 519087, China;
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Wenping Yuan
aState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875/Zhuhai 519087, China;
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Xin Wei
aState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875/Zhuhai 519087, China;
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Zhipeng Yang
aState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875/Zhuhai 519087, China;
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Tijian Wen
aState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875/Zhuhai 519087, China;
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Fei Teng
eEnergy, Environment, and Economy (3E) Research Institute, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;
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Yun Gao
fClimate Change Division, Department of Science and Technology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China;
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Jieming Chou
aState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875/Zhuhai 519087, China;
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Xiaodong Yan
aState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875/Zhuhai 519087, China;
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Zhigang Wei
aState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875/Zhuhai 519087, China;
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Yan Guo
aState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875/Zhuhai 519087, China;
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Yundi Jiang
gNational Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China;
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Xuejie Gao
gNational Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China;
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Kaicun Wang
aState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875/Zhuhai 519087, China;
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Xiaogu Zheng
aState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875/Zhuhai 519087, China;
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Fumin Ren
gNational Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China;
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Shihua Lv
hCold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China;
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Yongqiang Yu
iInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China;
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Bin Liu
eEnergy, Environment, and Economy (3E) Research Institute, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;
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Yong Luo
jCenter for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; and
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Weijing Li
kLaboratory for Climate Studies, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
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Duoying Ji
aState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875/Zhuhai 519087, China;
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Jinming Feng
aState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875/Zhuhai 519087, China;
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Qizhong Wu
aState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875/Zhuhai 519087, China;
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Huaqiong Cheng
aState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875/Zhuhai 519087, China;
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Jiankun He
eEnergy, Environment, and Economy (3E) Research Institute, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;
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Congbin Fu
iInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China;
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Duzheng Ye
iInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China;
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Guanhua Xu
aState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875/Zhuhai 519087, China;
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Wenjie Dong
aState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875/Zhuhai 519087, China;
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  • For correspondence: dongwj@bnu.edu.cn
  1. Edited by Mark H. Thiemens, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, and approved June 18, 2012 (received for review March 4, 2012)

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Abstract

At the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference in Cancun, in November 2010, the Heads of State reached an agreement on the aim of limiting the global temperature rise to 2 °C relative to preindustrial levels. They recognized that long-term future warming is primarily constrained by cumulative anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, that deep cuts in global emissions are required, and that action based on equity must be taken to meet this objective. However, negotiations on emission reduction among countries are increasingly fraught with difficulty, partly because of arguments about the responsibility for the ongoing temperature rise. Simulations with two earth-system models (NCAR/CESM and BNU-ESM) demonstrate that developed countries had contributed about 60–80%, developing countries about 20–40%, to the global temperature rise, upper ocean warming, and sea-ice reduction by 2005. Enacting pledges made at Cancun with continuation to 2100 leads to a reduction in global temperature rise relative to business as usual with a 1/3–2/3 (CESM 33–67%, BNU-ESM 35–65%) contribution from developed and developing countries, respectively. To prevent a temperature rise by 2 °C or more in 2100, it is necessary to fill the gap with more ambitious mitigation efforts.

  • climate modeling
  • Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5
  • Cancun pledge
  • climate ethics
  • geoengineering

Footnotes

  • ↵1To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: dongwj{at}bnu.edu.cn.
  • Author contributions: W.D. designed research; T. Wei, S.Y., J.C.M., P.S., X.C., and W.D. performed research; X.W., Z.Y., T. Wen, F.T., Q.W., and J.H. contributed new reagents/analytic tools; T. Wei, S.Y., and Y. Guo analyzed data; and T. Wei, S.Y., J.C.M., P.S., X.C., Q.D., B.X., Y.D., W.Y., X.W., Z.Y., T. Wen, F.T., Y. Gao, J.C., X.Y., Z.W., Y. Guo, Y.J., X.G., K.W., X.Z., F.R., S.L., Y.Y., B.L., Y.L., W.L., D.J., J.F., Q.W., H.C., J.H., C.F., D.Y., G.X., and W.D. wrote the paper.

  • The authors declare no conflict of interest.

  • This article is a PNAS Direct Submission.

  • This article contains supporting information online at www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.1203282109/-/DCSupplemental.

Freely available online through the PNAS open access option.

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Modeling countries’ climate change responsibility
Ting Wei, Shili Yang, John C. Moore, Peijun Shi, Xuefeng Cui, Qingyun Duan, Bing Xu, Yongjiu Dai, Wenping Yuan, Xin Wei, Zhipeng Yang, Tijian Wen, Fei Teng, Yun Gao, Jieming Chou, Xiaodong Yan, Zhigang Wei, Yan Guo, Yundi Jiang, Xuejie Gao, Kaicun Wang, Xiaogu Zheng, Fumin Ren, Shihua Lv, Yongqiang Yu, Bin Liu, Yong Luo, Weijing Li, Duoying Ji, Jinming Feng, Qizhong Wu, Huaqiong Cheng, Jiankun He, Congbin Fu, Duzheng Ye, Guanhua Xu, Wenjie Dong
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Aug 2012, 109 (32) 12911-12915; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1203282109

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Modeling countries’ climate change responsibility
Ting Wei, Shili Yang, John C. Moore, Peijun Shi, Xuefeng Cui, Qingyun Duan, Bing Xu, Yongjiu Dai, Wenping Yuan, Xin Wei, Zhipeng Yang, Tijian Wen, Fei Teng, Yun Gao, Jieming Chou, Xiaodong Yan, Zhigang Wei, Yan Guo, Yundi Jiang, Xuejie Gao, Kaicun Wang, Xiaogu Zheng, Fumin Ren, Shihua Lv, Yongqiang Yu, Bin Liu, Yong Luo, Weijing Li, Duoying Ji, Jinming Feng, Qizhong Wu, Huaqiong Cheng, Jiankun He, Congbin Fu, Duzheng Ye, Guanhua Xu, Wenjie Dong
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Aug 2012, 109 (32) 12911-12915; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1203282109
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