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Edited by Mark H. Thiemens, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, and approved June 18, 2012 (received for review March 4, 2012)
Abstract
At the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference in Cancun, in November 2010, the Heads of State reached an agreement on the aim of limiting the global temperature rise to 2 °C relative to preindustrial levels. They recognized that long-term future warming is primarily constrained by cumulative anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, that deep cuts in global emissions are required, and that action based on equity must be taken to meet this objective. However, negotiations on emission reduction among countries are increasingly fraught with difficulty, partly because of arguments about the responsibility for the ongoing temperature rise. Simulations with two earth-system models (NCAR/CESM and BNU-ESM) demonstrate that developed countries had contributed about 60–80%, developing countries about 20–40%, to the global temperature rise, upper ocean warming, and sea-ice reduction by 2005. Enacting pledges made at Cancun with continuation to 2100 leads to a reduction in global temperature rise relative to business as usual with a 1/3–2/3 (CESM 33–67%, BNU-ESM 35–65%) contribution from developed and developing countries, respectively. To prevent a temperature rise by 2 °C or more in 2100, it is necessary to fill the gap with more ambitious mitigation efforts.
- climate modeling
- Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5
- Cancun pledge
- climate ethics
- geoengineering
Footnotes
- ↵1To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: dongwj{at}bnu.edu.cn.
Author contributions: W.D. designed research; T. Wei, S.Y., J.C.M., P.S., X.C., and W.D. performed research; X.W., Z.Y., T. Wen, F.T., Q.W., and J.H. contributed new reagents/analytic tools; T. Wei, S.Y., and Y. Guo analyzed data; and T. Wei, S.Y., J.C.M., P.S., X.C., Q.D., B.X., Y.D., W.Y., X.W., Z.Y., T. Wen, F.T., Y. Gao, J.C., X.Y., Z.W., Y. Guo, Y.J., X.G., K.W., X.Z., F.R., S.L., Y.Y., B.L., Y.L., W.L., D.J., J.F., Q.W., H.C., J.H., C.F., D.Y., G.X., and W.D. wrote the paper.
The authors declare no conflict of interest.
This article is a PNAS Direct Submission.
This article contains supporting information online at www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.1203282109/-/DCSupplemental.
Freely available online through the PNAS open access option.
- Ting Weia,
- Shili Yanga,
- John C. Moorea,b,c,
- Peijun Shia,
- Xuefeng Cuia,
- Qingyun Duana,
- Bing Xua,d,
- Yongjiu Daia,
- Wenping Yuana,
- Xin Weia,
- Zhipeng Yanga,
- Tijian Wena,
- Fei Tenge,
- Yun Gaof,
- Jieming Choua,
- Xiaodong Yana,
- Zhigang Weia,
- Yan Guoa,
- Yundi Jiangg,
- Xuejie Gaog,
- Kaicun Wanga,
- Xiaogu Zhenga,
- Fumin Reng,
- Shihua Lvh,
- Yongqiang Yui,
- Bin Liue,
- Yong Luoj,
- Weijing Lik,
- Duoying Jia,
- Jinming Fenga,
- Qizhong Wua,
- Huaqiong Chenga,
- Jiankun Hee,
- Congbin Fui,
- Duzheng Yei,
- Guanhua Xua, and
- Wenjie Donga,1
- aState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875/Zhuhai 519087, China;
- bArctic Centre, University of Lapland, PL122, 96100 Rovaniemi, Finland;
- cDepartment of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Villavägen 16, Uppsala SE-75236, Sweden;
- dDepartment of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;
- eEnergy, Environment, and Economy (3E) Research Institute, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;
- fClimate Change Division, Department of Science and Technology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China;
- gNational Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China;
- hCold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China;
- iInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China;
- jCenter for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; and
- kLaboratory for Climate Studies, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
Edited by Mark H. Thiemens, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, and approved June 18, 2012 (received for review March 4, 2012)
Abstract
At the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference in Cancun, in November 2010, the Heads of State reached an agreement on the aim of limiting the global temperature rise to 2 °C relative to preindustrial levels. They recognized that long-term future warming is primarily constrained by cumulative anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, that deep cuts in global emissions are required, and that action based on equity must be taken to meet this objective. However, negotiations on emission reduction among countries are increasingly fraught with difficulty, partly because of arguments about the responsibility for the ongoing temperature rise. Simulations with two earth-system models (NCAR/CESM and BNU-ESM) demonstrate that developed countries had contributed about 60–80%, developing countries about 20–40%, to the global temperature rise, upper ocean warming, and sea-ice reduction by 2005. Enacting pledges made at Cancun with continuation to 2100 leads to a reduction in global temperature rise relative to business as usual with a 1/3–2/3 (CESM 33–67%, BNU-ESM 35–65%) contribution from developed and developing countries, respectively. To prevent a temperature rise by 2 °C or more in 2100, it is necessary to fill the gap with more ambitious mitigation efforts.
- climate modeling
- Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5
- Cancun pledge
- climate ethics
- geoengineering
Footnotes
- ↵1To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: dongwj{at}bnu.edu.cn.
Author contributions: W.D. designed research; T. Wei, S.Y., J.C.M., P.S., X.C., and W.D. performed research; X.W., Z.Y., T. Wen, F.T., Q.W., and J.H. contributed new reagents/analytic tools; T. Wei, S.Y., and Y. Guo analyzed data; and T. Wei, S.Y., J.C.M., P.S., X.C., Q.D., B.X., Y.D., W.Y., X.W., Z.Y., T. Wen, F.T., Y. Gao, J.C., X.Y., Z.W., Y. Guo, Y.J., X.G., K.W., X.Z., F.R., S.L., Y.Y., B.L., Y.L., W.L., D.J., J.F., Q.W., H.C., J.H., C.F., D.Y., G.X., and W.D. wrote the paper.
The authors declare no conflict of interest.
This article is a PNAS Direct Submission.
This article contains supporting information online at www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.1203282109/-/DCSupplemental.
Freely available online through the PNAS open access option.
Modeling countries’ climate change responsibility
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