Climate change, wine, and conservation
- aThe Betty and Gordon Moore Center for Ecosystem Science and Economics, Conservation International, Arlington VA 22202;
- bBren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106;
- cEnvironmental Defense Fund, San Francisco CA 94105;
- dCenter for Large Landscape Conservation, Bozeman, MT 59771;
- eCenter for Nature and Society, School of Life Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China;
- fDepartamento de Ecología, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Alameda 340, Santiago, Chile;
- gSanta Fe Insitute, Santa Fe, NM 87501;
- hInstituto de Ecología y Biodiversidad, Casilla 653, Santiago, Chile;
- iLaboratorio Internacional de Cambio Global, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Alameda 340, Santiago, Chile; and
- jDepartment of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California, Davis, CA 95616
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Edited by Robert E. Dickinson, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, and approved February 19, 2013 (received for review June 21, 2012)

Abstract
Climate change is expected to impact ecosystems directly, such as through shifting climatic controls on species ranges, and indirectly, for example through changes in human land use that may result in habitat loss. Shifting patterns of agricultural production in response to climate change have received little attention as a potential impact pathway for ecosystems. Wine grape production provides a good test case for measuring indirect impacts mediated by changes in agriculture, because viticulture is sensitive to climate and is concentrated in Mediterranean climate regions that are global biodiversity hotspots. Here we demonstrate that, on a global scale, the impacts of climate change on viticultural suitability are substantial, leading to possible conservation conflicts in land use and freshwater ecosystems. Area suitable for viticulture decreases 25% to 73% in major wine producing regions by 2050 in the higher RCP 8.5 concentration pathway and 19% to 62% in the lower RCP 4.5. Climate change may cause establishment of vineyards at higher elevations that will increase impacts on upland ecosystems and may lead to conversion of natural vegetation as production shifts to higher latitudes in areas such as western North America. Attempts to maintain wine grape productivity and quality in the face of warming may be associated with increased water use for irrigation and to cool grapes through misting or sprinkling, creating potential for freshwater conservation impacts. Agricultural adaptation and conservation efforts are needed that anticipate these multiple possible indirect effects.
Footnotes
- ↵1To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: l.hannah{at}conservation.org.
↵2Present address: Defenders of Wildlife, Washington, DC 20036.
Author contributions: L.H., P.R.R., M.I., A.V.S., and M.R.S. designed research; L.H., P.R.R., M.I., A.V.S., P.A.M., and R.J.H. performed research; P.R.R., M.I., and R.J.H. contributed a new analytic tool; L.H., P.R.R., M.I., A.V.S., M.R.S., P.A.M., and R.J.H. analyzed data; and L.H., P.R.R., M.I., A.V.S., M.R.S., G.T., L.Z., P.A.M., and R.J.H. wrote the paper.
The authors declare no conflict of interest.
This article is a PNAS Direct Submission.
This article contains supporting information online at www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.1210127110/-/DCSupplemental.
Freely available online through the PNAS open access option.
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