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Camouflage mismatch in seasonal coat color due to decreased snow duration

L. Scott Mills, Marketa Zimova, Jared Oyler, Steven Running, John T. Abatzoglou, and Paul M. Lukacs
PNAS April 30, 2013 110 (18) 7360-7365; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222724110
L. Scott Mills
aWildlife Biology Program, Department of Ecosystem and Conservation Sciences, University of Montana, Missoula, MT 59812;
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  • For correspondence: LScott.Mills@umontana.edu
Marketa Zimova
aWildlife Biology Program, Department of Ecosystem and Conservation Sciences, University of Montana, Missoula, MT 59812;
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Jared Oyler
bDepartment of Ecosystem and Conservation Sciences, University of Montana, Missoula, MT 59812; and
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Steven Running
bDepartment of Ecosystem and Conservation Sciences, University of Montana, Missoula, MT 59812; and
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John T. Abatzoglou
cDepartment of Geography, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID 83844
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Paul M. Lukacs
aWildlife Biology Program, Department of Ecosystem and Conservation Sciences, University of Montana, Missoula, MT 59812;
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  1. Edited* by Paul R. Ehrlich, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, and approved February 4, 2013 (received for review December 28, 2012)

This article has a correction. Please see:

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Abstract

Most examples of seasonal mismatches in phenology span multiple trophic levels, with timing of animal reproduction, hibernation, or migration becoming detached from peak food supply. The consequences of such mismatches are difficult to link to specific future climate change scenarios because the responses across trophic levels have complex underlying climate drivers often confounded by other stressors. In contrast, seasonal coat color polyphenism creating camouflage against snow is a direct and potentially severe type of seasonal mismatch if crypsis becomes compromised by the animal being white when snow is absent. It is unknown whether plasticity in the initiation or rate of coat color change will be able to reduce mismatch between the seasonal coat color and an increasingly snow-free background. We find that natural populations of snowshoe hares exposed to 3 y of widely varying snowpack have plasticity in the rate of the spring white-to-brown molt, but not in either the initiation dates of color change or the rate of the fall brown-to-white molt. Using an ensemble of locally downscaled climate projections, we also show that annual average duration of snowpack is forecast to decrease by 29–35 d by midcentury and 40–69 d by the end of the century. Without evolution in coat color phenology, the reduced snow duration will increase the number of days that white hares will be mismatched on a snowless background by four- to eightfold by the end of the century. This novel and visually compelling climate change-induced stressor likely applies to >9 widely distributed mammals with seasonal coat color.

  • phenotypic plasticity
  • snow downscaling
  • rhythm
  • phenological mismatch
  • threshold trait

Footnotes

  • ↵1To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: LScott.Mills{at}umontana.edu.
  • Author contributions: L.S.M. and M.Z. designed research; L.S.M., M.Z., J.O., and S.R. performed research; J.O., J.T.A., and P.M.L. contributed new reagents/analytic tools; L.S.M., M.Z., J.O., J.T.A., and P.M.L. analyzed data; and L.S.M., M.Z., J.O., S.R., and P.M.L. wrote the paper.

  • The authors declare no conflict of interest.

  • ↵*This Direct Submission article had a prearranged editor.

  • This article contains supporting information online at www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.1222724110/-/DCSupplemental.

Freely available online through the PNAS open access option.

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Camouflage mismatch in seasonal coat color
L. Scott Mills, Marketa Zimova, Jared Oyler, Steven Running, John T. Abatzoglou, Paul M. Lukacs
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Apr 2013, 110 (18) 7360-7365; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1222724110

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Camouflage mismatch in seasonal coat color
L. Scott Mills, Marketa Zimova, Jared Oyler, Steven Running, John T. Abatzoglou, Paul M. Lukacs
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Apr 2013, 110 (18) 7360-7365; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1222724110
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