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Research Article

Model projections of atmospheric steering of Sandy-like superstorms

Elizabeth A. Barnes, Lorenzo M. Polvani, and Adam H. Sobel
  1. aDepartment of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523;
  2. bDivision of Ocean and Climate Physics, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY 10964; and
  3. cDepartment of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics and Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027

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PNAS September 17, 2013 110 (38) 15211-15215; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1308732110
Elizabeth A. Barnes
aDepartment of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523;
bDivision of Ocean and Climate Physics, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY 10964; and
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  • For correspondence: eabarnes@atmos.colostate.edu
Lorenzo M. Polvani
bDivision of Ocean and Climate Physics, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY 10964; and
cDepartment of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics and Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027
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Adam H. Sobel
bDivision of Ocean and Climate Physics, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY 10964; and
cDepartment of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics and Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027
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  1. Edited* by Kerry A. Emanuel, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, and approved August 2, 2013 (received for review May 8, 2013)

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Abstract

Superstorm Sandy ravaged the eastern seaboard of the United States, costing a great number of lives and billions of dollars in damage. Whether events like Sandy will become more frequent as anthropogenic greenhouse gases continue to increase remains an open and complex question. Here we consider whether the persistent large-scale atmospheric patterns that steered Sandy onto the coast will become more frequent in the coming decades. Using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 multimodel ensemble, we demonstrate that climate models consistently project a decrease in the frequency and persistence of the westward flow that led to Sandy’s unprecedented track, implying that future atmospheric conditions are less likely than at present to propel storms westward into the coast.

  • climate change
  • Hurricane Sandy
  • global climate models
  • blocking

Footnotes

  • ↵1To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: eabarnes{at}atmos.colostate.edu.
  • Author contributions: E.A.B., L.M.P., and A.H.S. designed research; E.A.B. performed research; E.A.B. analyzed data; and E.A.B., L.M.P., and A.H.S. wrote the paper.

  • The authors declare no conflict of interest.

  • ↵*This Direct Submission article had a prearranged editor.

  • This article contains supporting information online at www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.1308732110/-/DCSupplemental.

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Future steering of Sandy-like superstorms
Elizabeth A. Barnes, Lorenzo M. Polvani, Adam H. Sobel
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Sep 2013, 110 (38) 15211-15215; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1308732110

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Future steering of Sandy-like superstorms
Elizabeth A. Barnes, Lorenzo M. Polvani, Adam H. Sobel
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Sep 2013, 110 (38) 15211-15215; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1308732110
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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences: 110 (38)
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