Edited by Paul R. Ehrlich, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, and approved September 15, 2014 (received for review June 5, 2014)
Scenario-based projections of world population from 2013 to 2100. (A) Scenario 1: BAU population growth (constant 2013 age-specific vital rates); Scenario 2a: reducing mortality (M), increasing age at primiparity (α), declining fertility to two children per female (Ft = 2) by 2100; Scenario 2b: same as Scenario 2a, but without reduced mortality; Scenario 3: same as Scenario 2a, but Ft = 1; Scenario 4: same as Scenario 3, but without reduced mortality and Ft = 1 by 2045 and thereafter constant to 2100; Scenario 5: avoiding all unintended pregnancies resulting in annual births. High and low projections by the United Nations (12) are shown as a grayed area, and the revised range for 2100 (13) is also indicated. (B) Scenario 6: elevated childhood mortality (Mj) from climate change (CC); Scenario 7: mass mortality event over a 5-y period starting 2056, equal to the proportion of combined number of deaths from World War I, World War II, and Spanish flu scaled to the mid-21st century population; Scenario 8: 2 billion people killed because of a global pandemic or war spread over 5 y, starting midway (i.e., 2056) through the projection interval; Scenario 9: 6 billion people killed because of a global pandemic or war spread over 5 y and initiated one-third of the way through the projection interval (i.e., 2041). The mass mortality windows are indicated as gray bars.
Long-term outlook. Scenario-based projection of world population from 2013 to 2300 based on constant 2013 age-specific vital rates but declining fertility to one child per female (Ft = 1) by 2100 (fertility held constant thereafter). Population reduces to one-half of its 2013 size by 2130, and one-quarter by 2158.
Size of dependent population. Proportion of people <15 y or >65 y per time step, and their ratio to the (most productive) remainder of the population (dependency ratio) for (A) Scenario 1 (BAU), and (B) Scenario 3 (decreasing mortality, increasing age at primiparity, decreasing fertility to one child per female). See Methods for detailed scenario descriptions.
Regional variation and impacts. Human population projections under the BAU levels of population growth (2013 matrix; Scenario 1) for 14 subregions (R1–R14; see below for country composition). Regional shading indicates relative mean population density projected for 2100: white shading = 0 persons km−2 to darker shading = 656.6 persons km−2). Values next to each region line (legends) indicate the ratio of the projected 2100 population (N2100) to the 2013 start population (N2013). Red hatched overlay indicates position of global Biodiversity Hotspots (a–ii: see below for full Hotspot list). Full Hotspot listing per region and associated projected values are also provided in Table S2. Subregion country composition (boldface indicates region number on the map): Africa D, Region 1: Angola (AGO), Benin (BEN), Burkina Faso (BFA), Cameroon (CMR), Cape Verde (CPV), Algeria (DZA), Gabon (GAB), Ghana (GHA), Guinea (GIN), Gambia (GMB), Guinea-Bissau (GNB), Equatorial Guinea (GNQ), Liberia (LBR), Madagascar (MDG), Mali (MLI), Mauritania (MRT), Mauritius (MUS), Niger (NER), Nigeria (NGA), Senegal (SEN), Sierra Leone (SLE), Sao Tome and Principe (STP), Seychelles (SYC), Chad (TCD), Togo (TGO); Africa E, Region 2: Burundi (BDI), Botswana (BWA), Central African Republic (CAF), Côte d’Ivoire (CIV), The Democratic Republic of the Congo (COD), Congo (COG), Eritrea (ERI), Ethiopia (ETH), Kenya (KEN), Lesotho (LSO), Mozambique (MOZ), Malawi (MWI), Namibia (NAM), Rwanda (RWA), Swaziland (SWZ), United Republic of Tanzania (TZA), Uganda (UGA), South Africa (ZAF), Zambia (ZMB), Zimbabwe (ZWE); Americas A, Region 3: Canada (CAN), Cuba (CUB), United States (USA); Americas B, Region 4: Argentina (ARG), Antigua and Barbuda (ATG), Bahamas (BHS), Belize (BLZ), Brazil (BRA), Barbados (BRB), Chile (CHL), Colombia (COL), Costa Rica (CRI), Dominica (DMA), Dominican Republic (DOM), Grenada (GRD), Guyana (GUY), Honduras (HND), Jamaica (JAM), Saint Kitts and Nevis (KNA), Saint Lucia (LCA), Mexico (MEX), Panama (PAN), Paraguay (PRY), El Salvador (SLV), Suriname (SUR), Trinidad and Tobago (TTO), Uruguay (URY), Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (VCT), Venezuela (VEN); Americas D, Region 5: Bolivia (BOL), Ecuador (ECU), Guatemala (GTM), Haiti (HTI), Nicaragua (NIC), Peru (PER); Eastern Mediterranean B, Region 6: United Arab Emirates (ARE), Bahrain (BHR), Cyprus (CYP), Islamic Republic of Iran (IRN), Jordan (JOR), Kuwait (KWT), Lebanon (LBN), Libyan Arab Jamahiriya (LBY), Oman (OMN), Qatar (QAT), Saudi Arabia (SAU), Syrian Arab Republic (SYR), Tunisia (TUN); Eastern Mediterranean D, Region 7: Afghanistan (AFG), Djibouti (DJI), Egypt (EGY), Iraq (IRQ), Morocco (MAR), Pakistan (PAK), Somalia (SOM), Sudan (SDN), Yemen (YEM); Europe A, Region 8: Andorra (AND), Austria (AUT), Belgium (BEL), Switzerland (CHE), Czech Republic (CZE), Germany (DEU), Denmark (DNK), Spain (ESP), Finland (FIN), France (FRA), United Kingdom (GBR), Greece (GRC), Croatia (HRV), Ireland (IRL), Iceland (ISL), Israel (ISR), Italy (ITA), Luxembourg (LUX), Monaco (MCO), Malta (MLT), The Netherlands (NLD), Norway (NOR), Portugal (PRT), San Marino (SMR), Slovenia (SVN), Sweden (SWE); Europe B, Region 9: Albania (ALB), Armenia (ARM), Azerbaijan (AZE), Bulgaria (BGR), Bosnia and Herzegovina (BIH), Georgia (GEO), Kyrgyzstan (KGZ), The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (MKD), Montenegro (MNE), Poland (POL), Romania (ROU), Serbia (SRB), Slovakia (SVK), Tajikistan (TJK), Turkmenistan (TKM), Turkey (TUR), Uzbekistan (UZB); Europe C, Region 10: Belarus (BLR), Estonia (EST), Hungary (HUN), Kazakhstan (KAZ), Lithuania (LTU), Latvia (LVA), Moldova (MDA), Russian Federation (RUS), Ukraine (UKR); Southeast Asia B, Region 11: Indonesia (IDN), Sri Lanka (LKA), Thailand (THA), East Timor (TLS); Southeast Asia D, Region 12: Bangladesh (BGD), Bhutan (BTN), India (IND), Maldives (MDV), Myanmar (MMR), Nepal (NPL), Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (PRK); Western Pacific A, Region 13: Australia (AUS), Brunei Darussalam (BRN), Japan (JPN), New Zealand (NZL), Singapore (SGP); Western Pacific B, Region 14: China (CHN), Cook Islands (COK), Fiji (FJI), Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), Cambodia (KHM), Kiribati (KIR), Republic of Korea (KOR), Lao People’s Democratic Republic (LAO), Marshall Islands (MHL), Mongolia (MNG), Malaysia (MYS), Niue (NIU), Nauru (NRU), Philippines (PHL), Palau (PLW), Papua New Guinea (PNG), Solomon Islands (SLB), Tonga (TON), Tuvalu (TUV), Vietnam (VNM), Vanuatu (VUT), Samoa (WSM). Biodiversity Hotspots: a, Tropical Andes; b, Mesoamerica; c, Caribbean Islands; d, Atlantic Forest; e, Tumbes-Chocó-Magdalena; f, Cerrado; g, Chilean Winter Rainfall-Valdivian Forests; h, California Floristic Province; I, Madagascar and the Indian Ocean Islands; j, Coastal Forests of Eastern Africa; k, Guinean Forests of West Africa; l, Cape Floristic Region; m, Succulent Karoo; n, Mediterranean Basin; o, Caucasus; p, Sundaland; q, Wallacea; r, Philippines; s, Indo-Burma, India and Myanmar; t, Mountains of Southwest China; u, Western Ghats and Sri Lanka; v, Southwest Australia; w, New Caledonia; x, New Zealand; y, Polynesia-Micronesia; z, Madrean Pine-Oak Woodlands; aa, Maputaland-Pondoland-Albany; bb, Eastern Afromontane; cc, Horn of Africa; dd, Irano-Anatolian; ee, Mountains of Central Asia; ff, Eastern Himalaya, Nepal; gg, Japan; hh, East Melanesian Islands; ii, Forests of East Australia.
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