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Research Article

Shortwave and longwave radiative contributions to global warming under increasing CO2

Aaron Donohoe, Kyle C. Armour, Angeline G. Pendergrass, and David S. Battisti
  1. aDepartment of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139;
  2. bAdvanced Study Program, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307; and
  3. cDepartment of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195

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PNAS November 25, 2014 111 (47) 16700-16705; first published November 10, 2014; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1412190111
Aaron Donohoe
aDepartment of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139;
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  • For correspondence: thedhoe@mit.edu
Kyle C. Armour
aDepartment of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139;
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Angeline G. Pendergrass
bAdvanced Study Program, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307; and
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David S. Battisti
cDepartment of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195
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  1. Edited by Robert E. Dickinson, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, and approved October 14, 2014 (received for review July 7, 2014)

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Significance

The greenhouse effect is well-established. Increased concentrations of greenhouse gases, such as CO2, reduce the amount of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) to space; thus, energy accumulates in the climate system, and the planet warms. However, climate models forced with CO2 reveal that global energy accumulation is, instead, primarily caused by an increase in absorbed solar radiation (ASR). This study resolves this apparent paradox. The solution is in the climate feedbacks that increase ASR with warming—the moistening of the atmosphere and the reduction of snow and sea ice cover. Observations and model simulations suggest that even though global warming is set into motion by greenhouse gases that reduce OLR, it is ultimately sustained by the climate feedbacks that enhance ASR.

Abstract

In response to increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2, high-end general circulation models (GCMs) simulate an accumulation of energy at the top of the atmosphere not through a reduction in outgoing longwave radiation (OLR)—as one might expect from greenhouse gas forcing—but through an enhancement of net absorbed solar radiation (ASR). A simple linear radiative feedback framework is used to explain this counterintuitive behavior. It is found that the timescale over which OLR returns to its initial value after a CO2 perturbation depends sensitively on the magnitude of shortwave (SW) feedbacks. If SW feedbacks are sufficiently positive, OLR recovers within merely several decades, and any subsequent global energy accumulation is because of enhanced ASR only. In the GCM mean, this OLR recovery timescale is only 20 y because of robust SW water vapor and surface albedo feedbacks. However, a large spread in the net SW feedback across models (because of clouds) produces a range of OLR responses; in those few models with a weak SW feedback, OLR takes centuries to recover, and energy accumulation is dominated by reduced OLR. Observational constraints of radiative feedbacks—from satellite radiation and surface temperature data—suggest an OLR recovery timescale of decades or less, consistent with the majority of GCMs. Altogether, these results suggest that, although greenhouse gas forcing predominantly acts to reduce OLR, the resulting global warming is likely caused by enhanced ASR.

  • global warming
  • climate feedbacks
  • energy accumulation

Footnotes

  • ↵1To whom correspondence should be addressed. Email: thedhoe{at}mit.edu.
  • Author contributions: A.D. designed research; A.D., K.C.A., and A.G.P. performed research; A.D., K.C.A., and A.G.P. analyzed data; and A.D., K.C.A., A.G.P., and D.S.B. wrote the paper.

  • The authors declare no conflict of interest.

  • This article is a PNAS Direct Submission.

  • This article contains supporting information online at www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.1412190111/-/DCSupplemental.

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Radiative response to greenhouse forcing
Aaron Donohoe, Kyle C. Armour, Angeline G. Pendergrass, David S. Battisti
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Nov 2014, 111 (47) 16700-16705; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1412190111

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Radiative response to greenhouse forcing
Aaron Donohoe, Kyle C. Armour, Angeline G. Pendergrass, David S. Battisti
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Nov 2014, 111 (47) 16700-16705; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1412190111
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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences: 111 (47)
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  • Article
    • Abstract
    • SW and LW Contributions to Energy Accumulation
    • Observational Constraints on SW and LW Energy Accumulation
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