A study finds that human activity has led to a severe decrease in Caribbean shark abundance.
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Edited by Dietram A. Scheufele, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, WI, and accepted by the Editorial Board February 24, 2014 (received for review November 5, 2013)
Abstract
All science has uncertainty. Unless that uncertainty is communicated effectively, decision makers may put too much or too little faith in it. The information that needs to be communicated depends on the decisions that people face. Are they (i) looking for a signal (e.g., whether to evacuate before a hurricane), (ii) choosing among fixed options (e.g., which medical treatment is best), or (iii) learning to create options (e.g., how to regulate nanotechnology)? We examine these three classes of decisions in terms of how to characterize, assess, and convey the uncertainties relevant to each. We then offer a protocol for summarizing the many possible sources of uncertainty in standard terms, designed to impose a minimal burden on scientists, while gradually educating those whose decisions depend on their work. Its goals are better decisions, better science, and better support for science.
Footnotes
- ↵1To whom correspondence should be addressed. Email: baruch{at}cmu.edu.
Author contributions: B.F. and A.L.D. wrote the paper.
The authors declare no conflict of interest.
This paper results from the Arthur M. Sackler Colloquium of the National Academy of Sciences, “The Science of Science Communication II,” held September 23–25, 2013, at the National Academy of Sciences in Washington, DC. The complete program and video recordings of most presentations are available on the NAS website at www.nasonline.org/science-communication-II.
This article is a PNAS Direct Submission. D.A.S. is a guest editor invited by the Editorial Board.
Communicating uncertainty
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- Social Sciences
- Psychological and Cognitive Sciences
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