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Research Article

Dynamical evidence for causality between galactic cosmic rays and interannual variation in global temperature

Anastasios A. Tsonis, Ethan R. Deyle, Robert M. May, George Sugihara, Kyle Swanson, Joshua D. Verbeten, and Geli Wang
  1. aDepartment of Mathematical Sciences, University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI 53201;
  2. bScripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093;
  3. cDepartment of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1-3PS, United Kingdom; and
  4. dKey Laboratory of Middle Atmosphere and Global Environment Observations, Institute for Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China

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PNAS March 17, 2015 112 (11) 3253-3256; first published March 2, 2015; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1420291112
Anastasios A. Tsonis
aDepartment of Mathematical Sciences, University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI 53201;
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  • For correspondence: aatsonis@uwm.edu robert.may@zoo.ox.ac.uk gsugihara@ucsd.edu
Ethan R. Deyle
bScripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093;
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Robert M. May
cDepartment of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1-3PS, United Kingdom; and
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  • For correspondence: aatsonis@uwm.edu robert.may@zoo.ox.ac.uk gsugihara@ucsd.edu
George Sugihara
bScripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093;
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  • For correspondence: aatsonis@uwm.edu robert.may@zoo.ox.ac.uk gsugihara@ucsd.edu
Kyle Swanson
aDepartment of Mathematical Sciences, University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI 53201;
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Joshua D. Verbeten
aDepartment of Mathematical Sciences, University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI 53201;
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Geli Wang
dKey Laboratory of Middle Atmosphere and Global Environment Observations, Institute for Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China
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  1. Contributed by Robert M. May, December 17, 2014 (sent for review August 5, 2014; reviewed by Brian John Hoskins and Tim N. Palmer)

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Significance

Here we use newly available methods to examine the dynamical association between cosmic rays (CR) and global temperature (GT) in the 20th-century observational record. We find no measurable evidence of a causal effect linking CR to the overall 20th-century warming trend; however, on short interannual timescales, we find a significant, although modest, causal effect of CR on short-term, year-to-year variability in GT. Thus, although CR clearly do not contribute measurably to the 20th-century global warming trend, they do appear as a nontraditional forcing in the climate system on short interannual timescales, providing another interesting piece of the puzzle in our understanding of factors influencing climate variability.

Abstract

As early as 1959, it was hypothesized that an indirect link between solar activity and climate could be mediated by mechanisms controlling the flux of galactic cosmic rays (CR) [Ney ER (1959) Nature 183:451–452]. Although the connection between CR and climate remains controversial, a significant body of laboratory evidence has emerged at the European Organization for Nuclear Research [Duplissy J, et al. (2010) Atmos Chem Phys 10:1635–1647; Kirkby J, et al. (2011) Nature 476(7361):429–433] and elsewhere [Svensmark H, Pedersen JOP, Marsh ND, Enghoff MB, Uggerhøj UI (2007) Proc R Soc A 463:385–396; Enghoff MB, Pedersen JOP, Uggerhoj UI, Paling SM, Svensmark H (2011) Geophys Res Lett 38:L09805], demonstrating the theoretical mechanism of this link. In this article, we present an analysis based on convergent cross mapping, which uses observational time series data to directly examine the causal link between CR and year-to-year changes in global temperature. Despite a gross correlation, we find no measurable evidence of a causal effect linking CR to the overall 20th-century warming trend. However, on short interannual timescales, we find a significant, although modest, causal effect between CR and short-term, year-to-year variability in global temperature that is consistent with the presence of nonlinearities internal to the system. Thus, although CR do not contribute measurably to the 20th-century global warming trend, they do appear as a nontraditional forcing in the climate system on short interannual timescales.

  • climate variability
  • cosmic rays
  • global temperature
  • causality
  • convergent cross mapping

Footnotes

  • ↵1To whom correspondence may be addressed. Email: aatsonis{at}uwm.edu, robert.may{at}zoo.ox.ac.uk, or gsugihara{at}ucsd.edu.
  • Author contributions: A.A.T., R.M.M., and G.S. designed research; A.A.T., E.R.D., G.S., K.S., J.D.V., and G.W. performed research; G.S. contributed new reagents/analytic tools; A.A.T., E.R.D., G.S., K.S., J.D.V., and G.W. analyzed data; and A.A.T., R.M.M., and G.S. wrote the paper.

  • Reviewers: B.J.H., Imperial College London; and T.N.P., University of Oxford.

  • The authors declare no conflict of interest.

  • This article contains supporting information online at www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.1420291112/-/DCSupplemental.

Freely available online through the PNAS open access option.

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The causal influence of cosmic rays on temperature
Anastasios A. Tsonis, Ethan R. Deyle, Robert M. May, George Sugihara, Kyle Swanson, Joshua D. Verbeten, Geli Wang
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Mar 2015, 112 (11) 3253-3256; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1420291112

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The causal influence of cosmic rays on temperature
Anastasios A. Tsonis, Ethan R. Deyle, Robert M. May, George Sugihara, Kyle Swanson, Joshua D. Verbeten, Geli Wang
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Mar 2015, 112 (11) 3253-3256; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1420291112
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