Experiment, monitoring, and gradient methods used to infer climate change effects on plant communities yield consistent patterns

Sarah C. Elmendorf; Gregory H. R. Henry; Robert D. Hollister; Anna Maria Fosaa; William A. Gould; Luise Hermanutz; Annika Hofgaard; Ingibjörg S. Jónsdóttir; Janet C. Jorgenson; Esther Lévesque; Borgþór Magnusson; Ulf Molau; Isla H. Myers-Smith; Steven F. Oberbauer; Christian Rixen; Craig E. Tweedie; Marilyn D. Walker

doi:10.1073/pnas.1410088112

Edited by William H. Schlesinger, Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, Millbrook, NY, and approved November 26, 2014 (received for review May 30, 2014)

Online Impact

Article Information

vol. 112 no. 2 448-452

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1410088112

PubMed:

25548195

Published By:

National Academy of Sciences

Print ISSN:

0027-8424

Online ISSN:

1091-6490

History:

Published in issue January 13, 2015.
Published first December 29, 2014.

Article Versions

Previous version (December 29, 2014 - 12:06).
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Author Information

Sarah C. Elmendorf^a,^b,¹,
Gregory H. R. Henry^c,
Robert D. Hollister^d,
Anna Maria Fosaa^e,
William A. Gould^f,
Luise Hermanutz^g,
Annika Hofgaard^h,
Ingibjörg S. Jónsdóttirⁱ,^j,
Janet C. Jorgenson^k,
Esther Lévesque^l,
Borgþór Magnusson^m,
Ulf Molauⁿ,
Isla H. Myers-Smith^o,
Steven F. Oberbauer^p,
Christian Rixen^q,
Craig E. Tweedie^r, and
Marilyn D. Walker^s

^aNational Ecological Observatory Network, Boulder, CO 80301;
^bDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309;
^cDepartment of Geography, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada V6T 1Z2;
^dBiology Department, Grand Valley State University, Allendale, MI 49401;
^eBotanical Department, Faroese Museum of Natural History, FO-110 Tórshavn, Faroe Islands;
^fInternational Institute of Tropical Forestry, US Forest Service, Rio Piedras, PR 00926;
^gDepartment of Biology, Memorial University, St. John’s, NL, Canada A1B 3X9;
^hTerrestrial Ecology Department, Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, NO-7034 Trondheim, Norway;
ⁱFaculty of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Iceland, 101 Reykjavík, Iceland;
^jDepartment of Biology, University Centre in Svalbard, 9171 Longyearbyen, Norway;
^kArctic National Wildlife Refuge, US Fish and Wildlife Service, Fairbanks, AK 99701;
^lDépartement des Sciences de l’environnement et Centre d’études nordiques, Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières, Trois-Rivières, QC, Canada G9A 5H7;
^mIcelandic Institute of Natural History, 212 Gardabaer, Iceland;
ⁿDepartment of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Gothenburg, SE 405 30 Gothenburg, Sweden;
^oSchool of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH9 3FF, United Kingdom;
^pDepartment of Biological Sciences, Florida International University, Miami, FL 33199;
^qCommunity Ecology Group, Swiss Federal Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research, CH-7260 Davos, Switzerland;
^rDepartment of Biology, University of Texas at El Paso, El Paso, TX 79912; and
^sHOMER Energy, Boulder, CO 80301

Edited by William H. Schlesinger, Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, Millbrook, NY, and approved November 26, 2014 (received for review May 30, 2014)

Footnotes

↵¹To whom correspondence should be addressed. Email: selmendorf{at}neoninc.org.

Author contributions: S.C.E. designed research; S.C.E., G.H.R.H., R.D.H., A.M.F., W.A.G., L.H., A.H., I.S.J., J.C.J., E.L., B.M., U.M., I.H.M.-S., S.F.O., C.R., C.E.T., and M.D.W. performed research; S.C.E. analyzed data; and S.C.E., G.H.R.H., and R.D.H. wrote the paper.
The authors declare no conflict of interest.
This article is a PNAS Direct Submission.
Data deposition: Plant abundance data from the unmanipulated and experimentally warmed plots have been deposited in the Polar Data Catalogue at www.polardata.ca (CCIN ref. no. 10786).
This article contains supporting information online at www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.1410088112/-/DCSupplemental.

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	Abstract	Full	Pdf
Dec 2014	886	0	38
Total 2014	886	0	38
Jan 2015	5401	92	435
Feb 2015	714	34	86
Mar 2015	493	17	67
Apr 2015	325	23	44
May 2015	251	21	31
Jun 2015	192	8	29
Jul 2015	212	8	43
Aug 2015	154	29	52
Sep 2015	210	47	77
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Dec 2015	216	39	42
Total 2015	8552	391	1053
Jan 2016	149	33	51
Feb 2016	91	34	51
Mar 2016	134	48	67
Apr 2016	250	37	60
May 2016	251	30	39
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Jul 2016	72	24	24
Aug 2016	99	22	32
Sep 2016	112	30	55
Oct 2016	122	38	58
Nov 2016	147	47	74
Dec 2016	102	41	41
Total 2016	1669	441	600
Jan 2017	86	67	32
Feb 2017	98	66	32
Mar 2017	127	95	52
Apr 2017	93	72	25
May 2017	90	82	39
Jun 2017	82	47	65
Jul 2017	54	53	32
Aug 2017	131	93	37
Sep 2017	119	98	77
Oct 2017	116	44	38
Nov 2017	90	56	24
Dec 2017	72	25	27
Total 2017	1158	798	480
Jan 2018	88	27	21
Feb 2018	114	90	30
Mar 2018	156	139	46
Apr 2018	141	115	43
May 2018	123	112	37
Jun 2018	113	83	31
Jul 2018	113	102	29
Aug 2018	104	86	42
Sep 2018	97	79	20
Oct 2018	44	102	47
Nov 2018	29	108	39
Dec 2018	40	121	57
Total 2018	1162	1164	442
Jan 2019	36	101	42
Feb 2019	32	88	35
Mar 2019	51	69	47
Apr 2019	30	58	39
May 2019	32	131	46
Jun 2019	16	64	45
Jul 2019	25	37	28
Aug 2019	37	34	36
Sep 2019	46	92	56
Oct 2019	61	59	57
Nov 2019	37	77	36
Dec 2019	36	57	36
Total 2019	439	867	503
Jan 2020	16	77	19
Feb 2020	29	76	33
Mar 2020	30	63	37
Apr 2020	18	74	29
May 2020	24	75	27
Jun 2020	16	58	22
Jul 2020	18	54	24
Aug 2020	16	57	37
Sep 2020	33	70	27
Oct 2020	55	73	64
Nov 2020	44	92	56
Dec 2020	32	74	30
Total 2020	331	843	405
Jan 2021	19	71	48
Feb 2021	40	101	43
Mar 2021	6	25	12
Total 2021	65	197	103
Total	14262	4701	3624