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Edited by Jean-Pierre Bocquet-Appel, Ecole Pratique des Hautes Etudes, Paris, France, and accepted by the Editorial Board May 21, 2015 (received for review February 25, 2015)
Article Figures & SI
Figures
- Fig. 1.
Comparisons between simulated hunter-gatherer population size and density, the archaeological population proxy, and paleoclimatic simulations between 30 and 13 ky ago in Europe. (A) Simulated human population size in Europe. Error bars show the resampling-based confidence limits (95%). (B) Simulated mean density in the inhabited area of Europe. Error bars show the resampling-based confidence limits (95%). (C) Archaeological population size proxy based on the taphonomically corrected number of dates. (D) European mean of simulated potential evapotranspiration. (E) European mean of simulated mean temperature of the coldest month. (F) European mean of simulated water balance. D–F are based on the downscaling from the CLIMBER-2 climate model.
- Fig. 2.
Simulated human population range and density compared with the spatial distribution of archaeological sites during six time intervals from 30 to 13 ky ago. Archaeological sites are indicated with black dots and in each time slice they represent sites dated within 1,000-y bins.
- Fig. 3.
Climatic suitability of Europe for human population over the LGM according to the simulation. (A) Changes in the percentage of potentially inhabited land area in Europe. (B) Percentage of time the area has potentially been inhabited between 30 and 13 ky ago. (C) Mean population density (people/100 km2) between 30 and 13 ky ago.
- Fig. S1.
Population simulations based on LGM snapshot (∼21 ky) climate data downscaled from three different general circulation models. (A) Simulation based on the CCSM4 climate data (36). (B) Simulation based on the MPI-ESM climate data (37). (C) Simulation based on the MIROC-ESM climate data (38). Downscaled data were obtained from the WorldClim database (www.worldclim.org/). All three simulations show the pattern where the Iberian Peninsula and the Mediterranean region are climatically most suitable for hunter-gatherers.
- Fig. S2.
Human population simulation in Europe based on the calibration data that includes also semi- and fully sedentary hunter-gatherer populations (GRPPAT = 2). (A) Simulated human population size in Europe. Error bars show the resampling-based confidence limits (95%). (B) Simulated mean density in the inhabited area of Europe. Error bars show the resampling-based confidence limits (95%). (C) Changes in the percentage of potentially inhabited land area in Europe. (D) Archaeological population size proxy based on the taphonomically corrected number of dates. (E) Percentage of time the area has potentially been inhabited between 30 and 13 ky ago. (F) Mean population density (people/100 km2) between 30 and 13 ky ago. (G and H) Probability of semi- or fully sedentary mobility patterns at two time slices. (I–N) Simulated human population range and density compared with the spatial distribution of archaeological sites during six time intervals from 30 to 13 ky ago. Archaeological sites are indicated with black dots and in each time slice they represent sites dated within 1,000-y bins.
- Fig. S3.
The distribution of the calibration or training data.
- Fig. S4.
Climate variability and population simulation in Australia at 0.5 ky ago. (A) Potential evapotranspiration. (B) Water balance. (C) Mean temperature of the coldest month. (D) Population simulation using only terrestrial hunter-gatherers (SUBSP = 1 and 2) as calibration data (population size = 620,000). (E) Population simulation using terrestrial and aquatic hunter-gatherers as calibration data (population size = 780,000). (F) The same as E, but based on more relaxed optimal threshold value (population size = 800,000).
- Fig. S5.
Taphonomically uncorrected and corrected temporal distributions of archaeological dates with bins of 1,000 (A) and 250 (B) y.
Tables
- Table S1.
Predictive accuracies of the six human occurrence and density models based on three climate variables
Modeling technique AUC TSS R2 CTA 0.991 0.969 0.533 GAM 0.992 0.971 0.569 GBM 0.992 0.975 0.619 GLM 0.994 0.965 0.503 RF 0.996 0.962 0.614 SVM 0.995 0.954 0.543 Values are calculated from validation data. Calibration data were randomly split to training (70%) and validation (30%) sets. Models were built using training data, and their predictive abilities were assessed using new data (validation set). This was repeated 500 times, and the reported accuracies are mean values.
Data supplements
Human population dynamics in Europe over the LGM
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- Social Sciences
- Anthropology
- Biological Sciences
- Anthropology
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