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Research Article

Carbon choices determine US cities committed to futures below sea level

View ORCID ProfileBenjamin H. Strauss, Scott Kulp, and Anders Levermann
  1. aClimate Central, Princeton, NJ 08542;
  2. bPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany;
  3. cPhysics Institute of Potsdam University, 14476 Potsdam, Germany

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PNAS November 3, 2015 112 (44) 13508-13513; first published October 12, 2015; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1511186112
Benjamin H. Strauss
aClimate Central, Princeton, NJ 08542;
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  • ORCID record for Benjamin H. Strauss
  • For correspondence: bstrauss@climatecentral.org
Scott Kulp
aClimate Central, Princeton, NJ 08542;
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Anders Levermann
bPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany;
cPhysics Institute of Potsdam University, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
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  1. Edited by James Hansen, Columbia University, New York, NY, and approved September 18, 2015 (received for review June 8, 2015)

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Significance

As greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, the window to limit global warming below 2 °C appears to be closing. Associated projections for sea-level rise generally range near or below 1 m by 2100. However, paleontological and modeling evidence indicates long-term sea-level sensitivity to warming that is roughly an order of magnitude higher. Here we develop relationships between cumulative carbon emissions and long-term sea-level commitment and explore implications for the future of coastal developments in the United States. The results offer a new way to compare different emissions scenarios or policies and suggest that the long-term viability of hundreds of coastal municipalities and land currently inhabited by tens of millions of persons hang in the balance.

Abstract

Anthropogenic carbon emissions lock in long-term sea-level rise that greatly exceeds projections for this century, posing profound challenges for coastal development and cultural legacies. Analysis based on previously published relationships linking emissions to warming and warming to rise indicates that unabated carbon emissions up to the year 2100 would commit an eventual global sea-level rise of 4.3–9.9 m. Based on detailed topographic and population data, local high tide lines, and regional long-term sea-level commitment for different carbon emissions and ice sheet stability scenarios, we compute the current population living on endangered land at municipal, state, and national levels within the United States. For unabated climate change, we find that land that is home to more than 20 million people is implicated and is widely distributed among different states and coasts. The total area includes 1,185–1,825 municipalities where land that is home to more than half of the current population would be affected, among them at least 21 cities exceeding 100,000 residents. Under aggressive carbon cuts, more than half of these municipalities would avoid this commitment if the West Antarctic Ice Sheet remains stable. Similarly, more than half of the US population-weighted area under threat could be spared. We provide lists of implicated cities and state populations for different emissions scenarios and with and without a certain collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Although past anthropogenic emissions already have caused sea-level commitment that will force coastal cities to adapt, future emissions will determine which areas we can continue to occupy or may have to abandon.

  • climate change
  • climate impacts
  • sea-level rise

Footnotes

  • ↵1To whom correspondence should be addressed. Email: bstrauss{at}climatecentral.org.
  • Author contributions: B.H.S., S.K., and A.L. designed research; S.K. performed research; B.H.S. and S.K. analyzed data; and B.H.S., S.K., and A.L. wrote the paper.

  • The authors declare no conflict of interest.

  • This article is a PNAS Direct Submission.

  • This article contains supporting information online at www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.1511186112/-/DCSupplemental.

Freely available online through the PNAS open access option.

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US cities committed below future sea levels
Benjamin H. Strauss, Scott Kulp, Anders Levermann
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Nov 2015, 112 (44) 13508-13513; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1511186112

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US cities committed below future sea levels
Benjamin H. Strauss, Scott Kulp, Anders Levermann
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Nov 2015, 112 (44) 13508-13513; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1511186112
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    - Feb 24, 2016
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences: 112 (44)
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  • Article
    • Abstract
    • Warming Commitment
    • Sea-Level Commitment
    • WAIS Collapse
    • Effects on Cities and Populated Land
    • Results
    • Discussion
    • Summary and Conclusions
    • Acknowledgments
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