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Reply to Holliday and Boslough et al.: Synchroneity of widespread Bayesian-modeled ages supports Younger Dryas impact hypothesis

James P. Kennett, Douglas J. Kennett, Brendan J. Culleton, J. Emili Aura Tortosa, Ted E. Bunch, Jon M. Erlandson, John R. Johnson, Jesús F. Jordá Pardo, Malcome A. LeCompte, William C. Mahaney, Kenneth Barnett Tankersley, James H. Wittke, Wendy S. Wolbach, and Allen West
  1. aDepartment of Earth Science and Marine Science Institute, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106;
  2. bDepartment of Anthropology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802;
  3. cDepartment Prehistoria i Arqueologia, Universitat de Valencia, E-46010 Valencia, Spain;
  4. dGeology Program, School of Earth Science and Environmental Sustainability, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011;
  5. eMuseum of Natural and Cultural History, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR 97403;
  6. fSanta Barbara Museum of Natural History, Santa Barbara, CA 93105;
  7. gDepartmento de Prehistoria y Arqueología, Facultad de Geografía e Historia, Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia, E-28040 Madrid, Spain;
  8. hCenter of Excellence in Remote Sensing Education and Research, Elizabeth City State University, Elizabeth City, NC 27909;
  9. iQuaternary Surveys, Thornhill, ON, Canada L4J 1J4;
  10. jDepartments of Anthropology and Geology, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH 45221;
  11. kDepartment of Chemistry, DePaul University, Chicago, IL 60614;
  12. lGeoScience Consulting, Dewey, AZ 86327

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PNAS December 8, 2015 112 (49) E6723-E6724; first published November 24, 2015; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1520411112
James P. Kennett
aDepartment of Earth Science and Marine Science Institute, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106;
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  • For correspondence: kennett@geol.ucsb.edu
Douglas J. Kennett
bDepartment of Anthropology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802;
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Brendan J. Culleton
bDepartment of Anthropology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802;
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J. Emili Aura Tortosa
cDepartment Prehistoria i Arqueologia, Universitat de Valencia, E-46010 Valencia, Spain;
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Ted E. Bunch
dGeology Program, School of Earth Science and Environmental Sustainability, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011;
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Jon M. Erlandson
eMuseum of Natural and Cultural History, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR 97403;
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John R. Johnson
fSanta Barbara Museum of Natural History, Santa Barbara, CA 93105;
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Jesús F. Jordá Pardo
gDepartmento de Prehistoria y Arqueología, Facultad de Geografía e Historia, Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia, E-28040 Madrid, Spain;
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Malcome A. LeCompte
hCenter of Excellence in Remote Sensing Education and Research, Elizabeth City State University, Elizabeth City, NC 27909;
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William C. Mahaney
iQuaternary Surveys, Thornhill, ON, Canada L4J 1J4;
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Kenneth Barnett Tankersley
jDepartments of Anthropology and Geology, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH 45221;
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James H. Wittke
dGeology Program, School of Earth Science and Environmental Sustainability, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011;
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Wendy S. Wolbach
kDepartment of Chemistry, DePaul University, Chicago, IL 60614;
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Allen West
lGeoScience Consulting, Dewey, AZ 86327
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Holliday (1) rejects age-depth models for the Younger Dryas boundary layer (YDB) in Kennett et al. (2), claiming that they are incorrect for several reasons, including age reversals, high age uncertainties, and use of optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating. These same claims previously were presented in Meltzer et al. (3) and were discussed and refuted in Kennett et al. (2). These criticisms apply to nearly all dated archaeological and geological sequences, including the Odessa meteorite impact crater, where paradoxically, Holliday et al. (4) modeled an impact age using OSL dating (>70% of dates used) with large uncertainties (to >6,000 y) and age reversals (>40% of dates are reversals). Thus, Holliday (1) argues against a practice that he and many other researchers have used and continue to use today. In an ideal world, all dates would be in perfect chronological order with high accuracy and certainty, but such scenarios are rarely possible (2). It is because of such dating difficulties that Bayesian analysis is a powerful chronological tool, and is rapidly becoming the archaeological standard.

Holliday (1) also claims to “provide evidence for multiple horizons with ‘impact proxies’ at times other than the YDB.” Those claims have been refuted in detail (2, 5⇓–7). In every case, those contradictory studies have serious flaws, including: (i) correct protocols were not followed, and (ii) the evidence was not analyzed using electron microscopy, an essential requirement. Independent workers who followed the correct procedures (e.g., ref. 5) confirmed the presence of YDB impact proxies at multiple sites, with few to no proxies above and below. Contrary to Holliday’s (1) claims, no interval other than the YDB layer in 23 widely separated stratigraphic profiles, spanning up to 50,000 y, contains the same broad assemblage of proxies (2).

Boslough et al. (8) question why Kennett et al. (2) did not create a Bayesian age-depth model for the Gainey site in Michigan. As previously explained (2), Bayesian analysis is most robust when the available dataset meets certain criteria, including having deeply stratified deposits with numerous dates bracketing the stratigraphic level of interest. Gainey, a site with near-surface, bioturbated deposits, does not meet those criteria, and so it was not modeled. Most importantly, all available dates are on a single stratum, making it impossible to create an age-depth model. Even so, the Gainey YDB layer contains thousands of high-temperature magnetic spherules, glassy spherules, and nanodiamonds, intermixed with thousands of Paleoindian lithics having a widely accepted age of ∼12,800 Cal B.P. (2, 7, 9). Previous studies concluded that the proxy-rich, lithics-rich stratum at Gainey is consistent with the YDB layer (7). We continue to support that conclusion.

Boslough et al. (8) also claim that their single young 14C date (calibrated to 207 ± 87 Cal B.P.) proves that Gainey does not contain the YDB stratum. Because this young date was from carbon intermixed in the same stratum with Paleoindian lithics dating to ∼12,800 Cal B.P., the two ages are mutually exclusive, and one must be rejected. In this case, the 12,800-y-old lithics are indisputably in situ, making it certain that the younger 14C date Boslough et al. (8) mention is on carbon that intruded from younger surficial deposits. Out-of-sequence 14C dates are a common dating problem that is solved by discounting outlying young dates. Because Paleoindians were certainly not living at Gainey ∼200 y ago, this younger date cannot reasonably be used to reject Gainey as a YDB site.

We reaffirm the validity of the Bayesian statistical analyses in Kennett et al. (2) demonstrating that the age of the YDB layer on four continents is synchronous within an age range of 12,835–12,735 Cal B.P., within the confines of dating uncertainties (95% confidence interval). Only the YDB layer in stratigraphic sections at 23 sites contains abundance peaks in a variable assemblage of proxies, including magnetic and glassy impact-related spherules, high-temperature minerals and melt glass, nanodiamonds, carbon spherules, aciniform carbon, and osmium (e.g., refs. 2, 5⇓–7, 9). The Bayesian-modeled YDB age range also overlaps that of an extraterrestrial platinum peak, independently identified in the Greenland ice sheet (2) that coincides unequivocally with the onset of the Younger Dryas cooling episode, supporting a causal connection between the Younger Dryas impact event and major climate change (2).

Footnotes

  • ↵1To whom correspondence should be addressed. Email: kennett{at}geol.ucsb.edu.
  • ↵2Retired.

  • Author contributions: J.P.K., D.J.K., B.J.C., J.E.A.T., T.E.B., J.M.E., J.R.J., J.F.J.P., M.A.L., W.C.M., K.B.T., J.H.W., W.S.W., and A.W. wrote the paper.

  • The authors declare no conflict of interest.

References

  1. ↵
    1. Holliday VT
    (2015) Problematic dating of claimed Younger Dryas boundary impact proxies. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 112:E6721
    .
    OpenUrlFREE Full Text
  2. ↵
    1. Kennett JP, et al.
    (2015) Bayesian chronological analyses consistent with synchronous age of 12,835–12,735 Cal B.P. for Younger Dryas boundary on four continents. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 112(32):E4344–E4353
    .
    OpenUrlAbstract/FREE Full Text
  3. ↵
    1. Meltzer DJ,
    2. Holliday VT,
    3. Cannon MD,
    4. Miller DS
    (2014) Chronological evidence fails to support claim of an isochronous widespread layer of cosmic impact indicators dated to 12,800 years ago. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 111(21):E2162–E2171
    .
    OpenUrlAbstract/FREE Full Text
  4. ↵
    1. Holliday VT,
    2. Kring DA,
    3. Mayer JH,
    4. Goble RJ
    (2005) Age and effects of the Odessa meteorite impact, western Texas, USA. Geology 33(12):945–948
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  5. ↵
    1. LeCompte MA, et al.
    (2012) Independent evaluation of conflicting microspherule results from different investigations of the Younger Dryas impact hypothesis. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 109(44):E2960–E2969
    .
    OpenUrlAbstract/FREE Full Text
  6. ↵
    1. Bunch TE, et al.
    (2012) Very high-temperature impact melt products as evidence for cosmic airbursts and impacts 12,900 years ago. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 109(28):E1903–E1912
    .
    OpenUrlAbstract/FREE Full Text
  7. ↵
    1. Wittke JH, et al.
    (2013) Evidence for deposition of 10 million tonnes of impact spherules across four continents 12,800 y ago. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 110(23):E2088–E2097
    .
    OpenUrlAbstract/FREE Full Text
  8. ↵
    1. Boslough M, et al.
    (2015) Incomplete Bayesian model rejects contradictory radiocarbon data for being contradictory. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 112:E6722
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  9. ↵
    1. Firestone RB, et al.
    (2007) Evidence for an extraterrestrial impact 12,900 years ago that contributed to the megafaunal extinctions and the Younger Dryas cooling. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 104(41):16016–16021
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    OpenUrlAbstract/FREE Full Text
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Bayesian analysis supports Younger Dryas impact
James P. Kennett, Douglas J. Kennett, Brendan J. Culleton, J. Emili Aura Tortosa, Ted E. Bunch, Jon M. Erlandson, John R. Johnson, Jesús F. Jordá Pardo, Malcome A. LeCompte, William C. Mahaney, Kenneth Barnett Tankersley, James H. Wittke, Wendy S. Wolbach, Allen West
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Dec 2015, 112 (49) E6723-E6724; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1520411112

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Bayesian analysis supports Younger Dryas impact
James P. Kennett, Douglas J. Kennett, Brendan J. Culleton, J. Emili Aura Tortosa, Ted E. Bunch, Jon M. Erlandson, John R. Johnson, Jesús F. Jordá Pardo, Malcome A. LeCompte, William C. Mahaney, Kenneth Barnett Tankersley, James H. Wittke, Wendy S. Wolbach, Allen West
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Dec 2015, 112 (49) E6723-E6724; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1520411112
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