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Edited by Simon A. Levin, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, and approved March 25, 2016 (received for review February 10, 2016)
Article Figures & SI
Figures
- Fig. 1.
Underlying epidemiological model and spread when there is no control. (A) Epidemiological model. (B) Median predicted area infected when management is not attempted, distinguishing symptomatic and cryptic infection. (C) Distribution of infected area without management, showing the variability in the area lost to disease. Shading shows the deciles and 5th and 95th percentiles; the white curve marks the median.
- Fig. 2.
Extensive treatment starting in 2014 does not contain the epidemic. (A) Median total area affected by infection or host removal when there is sufficient budget to treat up to 200 km2/y, starting 2014 (red), compared with no management (blue). (B) Distributions of area affected by infection or host removal in 2030. (C) Predicted spread of infection for statewide management with budget allowing up to 200 km2/y to be controlled (control starting 2014).
- Fig. 3.
Management efficacy depends on the starting date and the available budget. (A) Median area affected by infection or host removal by 2030. (B) Median area removed by treatment by 2030. (C) Area lost by 2030 as a function of the budget, for treatment that starts in 2002, showing the distribution of possible epidemic impacts. (Inset) Response to the year in which treatment begins, for a fixed budget that allows up to 50 km2/y to be treated.
- Fig. 4.
Optimizing the local deployment of treatment. (A) Area lost by 2030 when treating up to 50 km2/y (starting 2002). Shading shows the deciles and 5th and 95th percentiles; the white curve marks the median. (B) The distributions of area lost when treating 25 km2/y (Top Left), 75 km2/y (Top Right), and 100 km2/y (Bottom Left). The median area lost when treating using the optimal radius (minimizing the median) is shown (Bottom Right). (C) Area lost at optimal radius as a function of the percentile of the distribution of area lost that is optimized. (Inset) Optimal radius by percentile.
- Fig. 5.
Optimizing the set of locations to treat. (A) The median area lost by 2030 as a function of treatment radius, comparing strategies to prioritize disease foci for treatment. Management starts in 2002, with sufficient budget to treat 50 km2/y. Circles show the optimal radius and minimum median area lost for each strategy. (B) Response of area lost to the budget, independently optimizing the radius for each strategy at each budget. In all cases, control starts in 2002. (C) The area lost by 2030 as a function of the year in which treatment starts, for treatment of up to 50 km2/y, again optimizing the radius of treatment for each strategy for each year. (D) Maps showing the risk of infection in 2030 with no control (Left), treating with random selection of sites from the set of sites known to contain untreated infected (Middle), and for control, focusing treatment at and beyond the northward moving wave front of the epidemic (Right). Both treatment strategies are shown at their optimal radius, for treatment starting in 2002 and with sufficient budget to treat 50 km2/y.
Data supplements
Supporting Information
- Download Supporting Information (PDF)
- Download Appendix (PDF)
- Download Movie_S01 (AVI) - Baseline infection risk. Risk of infection over time (1990–2030) when there is no control (compare Fig. 1 B and C).
- Download Movie_S02 (AVI) - High level of control starting 2014. Risk of infection or removal over time (1990–2030) when there is sufficient budget to allow control of up to 200 km2/y starting in 2014 (random selection of sites for treatment from the detected list; control radius 375.0 m; compare Fig. 2).
- Download Movie_S03 (AVI) - Infected strategy starting 2002. Risk of infection or removal over time (1990–2030) when there is sufficient budget to allow control of up to 50 km2/y starting in 2002 (preferentially treating sites from the detected list in areas where a large proportion of host is infected; optimized control radius 187.5 m; compare Fig. 5A).
- Download Movie_S04 (AVI) - Random strategy starting 2002. Risk of infection or removal over time (1990–2030) when there is sufficient budget to allow control of up to 50 km2/y starting in 2002 (random selection of sites for treatment from the detected list; optimized control radius 187.5 m; compare Fig. 5A).
- Download Movie_S05 (AVI) - Host strategy starting 2002. Risk of infection or removal over time (1990–2030) when there is sufficient budget to allow control of up to 50 km2/y starting in 2002 (preferentially treating sites from the detected list in areas where there is a large amount of P. ramorum host; optimized control radius 250.0 m; compare Fig. 5A).
- Download Movie_S06 (AVI) - Hazard strategy starting 2002. Risk of infection or removal over time (1990–2030) when there is sufficient budget to allow control of up to 50 km2/y starting in 2002 [preferentially treating sites from the detected list in areas in which there is predicted to be high local rates of spread due to high hazard (equivalent to high basic reproductive number); optimized control radius 312.5 m; compare Fig. 5A].
- Download Movie_S07 (AVI) - Susceptible strategy starting 2002. Risk of infection or removal over time (1990–2030) when there is sufficient budget to allow control of up to 50 km2/y starting in 2002 (preferentially treating sites from the detected list in areas where a large proportion of host remains susceptible; optimized control radius 350.0 m; compare Fig. 5A).
- Download Movie_S08 (AVI) - Wave-front strategy starting 2002. Risk of infection or removal over time (1990–2030) when there is sufficient budget to allow control of up to 50 km2/y starting in 2002 (preferentially treating sites from the detected list at and ahead of the epidemic wave front; optimized control radius 362.5 m; compare Fig. 5A).
When, where, and whether to manage a plant epidemic
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