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Research Article

Spread of Zika virus in the Americas

Qian Zhang, Kaiyuan Sun, Matteo Chinazzi, Ana Pastore y Piontti, Natalie E. Dean, Diana Patricia Rojas, Stefano Merler, Dina Mistry, Piero Poletti, Luca Rossi, Margaret Bray, M. Elizabeth Halloran, Ira M. Longini Jr., and Alessandro Vespignani
  1. aLaboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA 02115;
  2. bDepartment of Biostatistics, College of Public Health and Health Professions, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611;
  3. cDepartment of Epidemiology, College of Public Health and Health Professions, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611;
  4. dBruno Kessler Foundation, 38123 Trento, Italy;
  5. eDondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics and Public Policy, Universitá Commerciale L. Bocconi, 20136 Milan, Italy;
  6. fInstitute for Scientific Interchange Foundation, 10126 Turin, Italy;
  7. gVaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA 98109;
  8. hDepartment of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195

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PNAS May 30, 2017 114 (22) E4334-E4343; first published April 25, 2017; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1620161114
Qian Zhang
aLaboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA 02115;
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Kaiyuan Sun
aLaboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA 02115;
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Matteo Chinazzi
aLaboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA 02115;
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Ana Pastore y Piontti
aLaboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA 02115;
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Natalie E. Dean
bDepartment of Biostatistics, College of Public Health and Health Professions, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611;
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Diana Patricia Rojas
cDepartment of Epidemiology, College of Public Health and Health Professions, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611;
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Stefano Merler
dBruno Kessler Foundation, 38123 Trento, Italy;
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Dina Mistry
aLaboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA 02115;
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Piero Poletti
eDondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics and Public Policy, Universitá Commerciale L. Bocconi, 20136 Milan, Italy;
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Luca Rossi
fInstitute for Scientific Interchange Foundation, 10126 Turin, Italy;
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Margaret Bray
aLaboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA 02115;
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M. Elizabeth Halloran
gVaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA 98109;
hDepartment of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195
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Ira M. Longini Jr.
bDepartment of Biostatistics, College of Public Health and Health Professions, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611;
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Alessandro Vespignani
aLaboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA 02115;
fInstitute for Scientific Interchange Foundation, 10126 Turin, Italy;
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  • For correspondence: a.vespignani@northeastern.edu
  1. Edited by Alan Hastings, University of California, Davis, CA, and approved March 30, 2017 (received for review December 8, 2016)

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Significance

Mathematical and computational modeling approaches can be essential in providing quantitative scenarios of disease spreading, as well as projecting the impact in the population. Here we analyze the spatial and temporal dynamics of the Zika virus epidemic in the Americas with a microsimulation approach informed by high-definition demographic, mobility, and epidemic data. The model provides probability distributions for the time and place of introduction of Zika in Brazil, the estimate of the attack rate, timing of the epidemic in the affected countries, and the projected number of newborns from women infected by Zika. These results are potentially relevant in the preparation and analysis of contingency plans aimed at Zika virus control.

Abstract

We use a data-driven global stochastic epidemic model to analyze the spread of the Zika virus (ZIKV) in the Americas. The model has high spatial and temporal resolution and integrates real-world demographic, human mobility, socioeconomic, temperature, and vector density data. We estimate that the first introduction of ZIKV to Brazil likely occurred between August 2013 and April 2014 (90% credible interval). We provide simulated epidemic profiles of incident ZIKV infections for several countries in the Americas through February 2017. The ZIKV epidemic is characterized by slow growth and high spatial and seasonal heterogeneity, attributable to the dynamics of the mosquito vector and to the characteristics and mobility of the human populations. We project the expected timing and number of pregnancies infected with ZIKV during the first trimester and provide estimates of microcephaly cases assuming different levels of risk as reported in empirical retrospective studies. Our approach represents a modeling effort aimed at understanding the potential magnitude and timing of the ZIKV epidemic and it can be potentially used as a template for the analysis of future mosquito-borne epidemics.

  • Zika virus
  • computational epidemiology
  • metapopulation network model
  • vector-borne diseases

Footnotes

  • ↵1To whom correspondence should be addressed. Email: a.vespignani{at}northeastern.edu.
  • Author contributions: M.E.H., I.M.L., and A.V. designed research; Q.Z., K.S., M.C., A.P.y.P., S.M., D.M., P.P., L.R., and A.V. performed research; Q.Z., K.S., M.C., A.P.y.P., D.M., M.B., and A.V. analyzed data; and Q.Z., K.S., M.C., A.P.y.P., N.E.D., D.P.R., S.M., D.M., P.P., L.R., M.B., M.E.H., I.M.L., and A.V. wrote the paper.

  • The authors declare no conflict of interest.

  • This article is a PNAS Direct Submission.

  • See Commentary on page 5558.

  • This article contains supporting information online at www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.1620161114/-/DCSupplemental.

Freely available online through the PNAS open access option.

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Spread of Zika virus in the Americas
Qian Zhang, Kaiyuan Sun, Matteo Chinazzi, Ana Pastore y Piontti, Natalie E. Dean, Diana Patricia Rojas, Stefano Merler, Dina Mistry, Piero Poletti, Luca Rossi, Margaret Bray, M. Elizabeth Halloran, Ira M. Longini, Alessandro Vespignani
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences May 2017, 114 (22) E4334-E4343; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1620161114

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Spread of Zika virus in the Americas
Qian Zhang, Kaiyuan Sun, Matteo Chinazzi, Ana Pastore y Piontti, Natalie E. Dean, Diana Patricia Rojas, Stefano Merler, Dina Mistry, Piero Poletti, Luca Rossi, Margaret Bray, M. Elizabeth Halloran, Ira M. Longini, Alessandro Vespignani
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences May 2017, 114 (22) E4334-E4343; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1620161114
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  • Physical Sciences
  • Biophysics and Computational Biology
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  • Population Biology

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  • Retracing Zika’s footsteps with modeling
    - May 22, 2017
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